US FX Market Open
The dollar stands at the back foot and accelerates lower ahead of US session opening on Tuesday. The Dollar index extended losses to the lowest since early June 2016 (session low lies at 93.49 so far).
Major dollar’s counterparts benefited from weaker greenback. The Euro came ticks ahead of psychological 1.1700 barrier, on fresh strength sparked by better than expected German Ifo data.
Firm German economy sees no obstacles from strong Euro, according to the comments from Ifo economist.
The Euro registered gains of 0.5% from Tuesday’s opening until now and showing strong scope for final attack at 1.1713/35 targets.
Comments from ECB’s Mersch that ongoing economic expansion in the Eurozone provides confidence kept the Euro supported.
Sterling rallied towards 1.3100 barrier on Tuesday after dips in Asia / early Europe were contained by psychological 1.3000 support. Cable resumed strong recovery rally of past two days which showed hesitation at pivotal 1.3050 barrier on Monday, with firm break higher, turning near-term bias up and focuses key barrier at 1.3125 (18 July peak). The pair is up 0.6% from session low at 1.3007.
The USDJPY pair pared some gains on pullback from recovery high at 111.52, posted on Tuesday, but shows strong signals of further recovery on reversal pattern forming on daily chart. Monday’s close above 111.50 would be seen as fresh bullish signal, while return below 111.00 handle will be bearish.
The Australian dollar edged higher in Europe, dragged by weaker greenback but remains within near-term congestion, awaiting inflation data from Australia and FOMC meeting outcome on Wednesday.
Major pairs remained on hold during previous few sessions, awaiting signals from Fed.
Spot Gold bounced from session low at $1249, as dollar lost traction, marking the pullback from fresh high at $1258 shallow and putting on hold immediate threats of completion of reversal pattern and subsequent deeper correction. However, the downside remains vulnerable for now and close below $1250 would be seen as negative signal.
Conversely, extended bounce and close in the daily cloud would signal an end of correction.
WTI oil maintains positive tone on Tuesday and extended recovery from Monday’s $45.39 low. Fresh strength regained levels above $47.00, signaling possible full retracement of last week’s $47.72/$45.39 pullback.
Oil prices were inflated by comments from Saudi Arabia who announced on OPEC meeting on Monday it would cut exports in August to 6.6 mln bls a day, approximately a million barrels less than a year earlier.
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence is the key release in the American session. The figure is expected to decline in line with other indicators for consumer confidence but to stay at a high level (the indicator hit the highest level since early 2001 in March this year). Forecast for July is 116.5 vs 118.9 release in June.