Technical Outlook for Majors 26/10/2016
EURUSD
Strong bounce on Wednesday from fresh low at 1.0849 comes after two long-legged Dojis and probes above initial barrier at 1.0909 (former low of 24 June), signaling stronger correction of steep two-week fall.
Daily studies are overextended and Slow Stochastic is emerging from oversold territory, signaling correction. Extension through pivot at 1.0921 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1038/1.0849 downleg) would challenge strong barrier at 1.0953 (daily Tenkan-sen) currently moving in sideways mode.
Overall strong bearish structure sees recovery stall ideally under Tenkan-sen line, ahead of fresh attempts towards targets at 1.0820.
However, daily close above Tenkan-sen line would signal further recovery and expose psychological 1.1000 barrier and 1.1013 (Fibo 38.2% of larger 1.1277/1.0849 descend), next triggers.
Upper breakpoint lies at 1.0963 (daily Kijun-sen line), break of which will be bullish.
Res: 1.0921; 1.0953; 1.1013; 1.1038
Sup: 1.0900; 1.0883; 1.0849; 1.0820
GBPUSD
Cable posted new low at 1.2081 on Tuesday’ sharp fall, but quick recovery that left long-tailed daily candle, signaled strong hesitation at pivotal 1.2080 support zone. Recovery from 1.2081 is currently riding on the third wave that commenced from 1.2155 hourly trough and eyes its Fibonacci expansion levels at 1.2230/47 (61.8% and 76.4% respectively) with extension to FE 100% at 1.2276 not ruled out. Extended correction is expected to stall under 1.2300 barrier, as overall structure remains bearish and favors fresh attempts lower, after strong support at 1.2087 that guards key 1.2000 zone, was dented.
Alternative scenario requires sustained break above 1.2330 (19 Oct recovery top) to signal higher base at 1.2080 zone and stronger correction.
Res: 1.2230; 1.2247; 1.2276; 1.2300
Sup: 1.2170; 1.2155; 1.2135; 1.2081
USDJPY
The pair returned to 104 support zone (daily Tenkan-sen line) which holds dips for now, after Tuesday’s surge through key barriers at 104.62/75 (former high of 13 Oct / upper boundary of bull-channel from 99.52) failed to sustain gains after peaking at 104.86 (fresh nearly three-month high).
Long upper shadow of Tuesday’s daily candle signaled strong hesitation at the upper barriers and weighs on near-term structure.
Overall bulls remain firmly in play, but close above 104.43 (Fibo 61.8% of 107.47/99.52 descend) is seen as minimum requirement to signal bullish resumption and final attack at psychological 105.00 barrier.
Meantime, the pair may spend some more time in consolidation which should stay above daily Tenkan-sen line to keep fresh upside attempts in play.
Slide below 104.00 handle will open 103.70 (24 Oct low) and risk retest of key near-term support at 103.50 (daily Ichimoku cloud top), loss of which would signal rally’s stall and weaken near-term structure.
Res: 104.37; 104.62; 104.78; 104.86
Sup: 104.00; 103.70; 103.50; 103.15
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar peaked at 0.7708 on Wednesday, following strong two-day rally that left higher base at 0.7585 and is now looking for full retracement of 0.7732/0.7585 fall. The pair received strong support from economic data released overnight and is looking for final push towards 0.7732 barrier (20 Oct high) after completion of narrow consolidation which was so far contained at 0.7675 (approx 23.6% of 0.7585/0.7708 rally.
Any extension lower would delay immediate bulls and expose next good supports at 0.7661 (Fibo 38.2%) and 0.7645 (rising daily Tenkan-sen / 50% retracement) which is expected to contain extended dips.
Res: 0.7708; 0.7732; 0.7758; 0.7800
Sup: 0.7675; 0.7661; 0.7645; 0.7627