Technical Outlook for Majors 26/09/2016
EURUSD
The Euro maintains positive near-term tone and extends recovery from 1.1122 low into the fourth day. Also, strong bullish weekly close adds on positive sentiment, established above daily double-bottom at 1.1122 (lows of 31 Aug / 21 Sep).
Fresh strength cracked daily Kijun-sen line at 1.1237 and came just ticks ahead of 1.1247 barrier (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1325/1.1122 downleg) which was cracked on last Thursday’s spike to 1.1256).
Daily close above 1.1247 is needed to confirm strong bullish stance for extension towards 1.1280 zone, which guards key near-term barrier at 1.1325 (08 Sep spike high).
Rising and thickening daily Ichimoku cloud continues to underpin recovery, currently laying at 1.1200 zone and being reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line and expected to ideally contain corrective dips.
Res: 1.1256; 1.1282; 1.1325; 1.1358
Sup: 1.1220; 1.1200; 1.1170; 1.1153
GBPUSD
Cable fell sharply on Monday and fully retraced recovery from Friday’s low at 1.2913 that stalled on approach to psychological 1.3000 barrier (also near Fibo 38.2% of 1.3118/1.2913 downleg).
Downside pressure persists following last Friday’s strong bearish close that followed recovery rejection at daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.3094 and red weekly candle with long upper shadow that signals rising selling pressure.
Post-Brexit short-term consolidation is spanned between 1.2795 and 1.3443, with recent weakness putting lows at 1.2864 (15 Aug) and 1.2795 (06 July) under increased pressure.
Further easing is signaled by bearish daily studies and expanding 20d Bollinger Bands. Return to post-Brexit lows would signal fresh weakness on violation and open for retest levels last traded in June 1985.
Initial barrier and first trigger lies at 1.3000 zone, followed by 1.3040 and 1.3070, while upper breakpoint lies at 1.3118 (peak of 22 Sep).
Res: 1.2941; 1.2970; 1.3000; 1.3040
Sup: 1.2913; 1.2864; 1.2795; 1.2770
USDJPY
Near-term focus is shifting towards strong 100.00 support zone, as fresh weakness emerged from the zone just above 101.00 barrier, where multiple recovery rejections occurred. The pair dipped from session high at 101.06 to 100.42 and retraced over Fibo 61.8% of 100.08/101.23 near-term recovery.
Falling daily cloud and bear-trendline off 111.43 high, maintain bearish pressure for renewed attempt at 100.00, which resisted attacks on 26 Aug and 22 Sep, with eventual break lower to expose post-Brexit lows at 99.52 and 98.98.
Session high at 101.06 marks the first resistance, guarding daily Tenkan-sen line / Fibo 61.8% of 102.77/100.08 at 101.71.
Upper breakpoint lies at 102.19 (daily cloud base, reinforced by Kijun-sen line).
Res: 100.69; 101.06; 101.23; 101.71
Sup: 100.26; 100.00; 99.52; 98.98
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