Technical Outlook for Majors 23/11/2016
EURUSD
The Euro was lower in early Wednesday’s trading and fell back below hourly cloud, on probe below 1.0600 handle, after previous day’s trading ended in long-legged Doji, signaling indecision. Upside rejection at 1.0650 zone on Tuesday (near-term consolidation top) generated negative signal, as repeated upside failures would turn focus lower for renewed attack and fresh low at 1.0567, posted on 18 Nov.
Daily technicals remain firmly bearish and favor final push towards key supports at 1.0519/1.0461, on completion of current narrow consolidation, as the pair so far showed no significant reaction on oversold conditions.
However, positioning ahead of tomorrow’s US holiday may trigger stronger volatility, ahead widely expected quiet holiday trading.
Initial barriers lay at 1.0642 56 (Asian high / Tuesday’s peak), followed by falling 10SMA at 1.0700 zone and strong barriers 1.0740 area (17 Nov high/ Fibo 23.6% of 1.1298/1.0567 fall / falling daily Tenkan-en line), break of which is needed to signal stronger correction.
Res: 1.0642; 1.0656; 1.0700; 1.0740
Sup: 1.0599; 1.0582; 1.0567; 1.0519
GBPUSD
Cable is probing below daily Kijun-sen-sen line pivot at 1.2376, on extended weakness from Mon/Tue peaks at 1.2510, where recovery rallies were capped. The pair extended weakness following Tuesday’s close in red, as repeated failures to clear upper trigger at 1.2486 (daily Tenkan-sen line) and upside rejections that left lower platform at 1.2510 zone.
Bear-leg from 1.2510 has so far retraced over 61.8% of Monday’s strong 1.2310/1.2510 rally that signals an end of recovery phase and turns near-term focus lower. Daily close below Kijun-sen line is needed to confirm scenario and open way towards key near-term support at 1.2300, for completion of daily H&S pattern that may trigger stronger downside action in the near-term.
Res: 1.2376; 1.2423; 1.2462; 1.2510
Sup: 1.2358; 1.2929; 1.2300; 1.2220
USDJPY
The pair remains supported and holding within narrow consolidation range under fresh high at 111.34 that was retested on Tuesday. Daily indicators are in steep ascend and underpin the action which is looking for extension towards next target and strong barrier at 112.12 (weekly cloud base).
Meantime, the pair may extend near-term range, before bulls resume, as coming US holiday is expected bring lower volumes and more quiet trading.
Dips are so far seen as buying opportunities, with solid supports at 110.25/00 Tuesday’s low / psychological support) expected to ideally protect the downside.
Res: 111.34; 111.87; 112.12; 112.50
Sup: 110.83; 110.54; 110.25; 110.00
AUDUSD
Aussie extends correction from fresh low at 0.7308 into third straight day and establishing above 0.7400 handle and posting session high at 0.7443 (50% retracement of 0.7579/0.7308 downleg). Recovery may extend further as daily RSI and Slow Stochastic reversed from oversold territory and heading north, showing more space at the upside.
Next resistance lies at 0.7467 (falling 10SMA / daily Tenkan-sen), followed by 0.7487 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7765/0.7308 descend), where extended upticks should be capped to keep intact 200SMA at 0.7516.
Overall structure is firmly bearish and favors fresh weakness after completion of near-term correction.
Res: 0.7443; 0.7487; 0.7516; 0.7542
Sup: 0.7400; 0.7367; 0.7343; 0.7308