Technical Outlook for Majors 23/09/2016
EURUSD
The Euro consolidates at 1.1200 zone (daily Tenkan-sen line / Fibo 38.2% of two-day 1.1122/1.1256 recovery) where pullback from 1.256 peak found temporary footstep. Near-term outlook is mixed, as strong bullish signal from Bull-trap pattern that formed on a false break below daily cloud, was offset by negative signal from yesterday’s daily candle long upper shadow.
However, dips are so far holding above the top of thickening daily cloud (currently at 1.1187), which would keep alive hopes of fresh attempts higher. Close above daily Tenkan-sen line is seen as minimum requirement to keep bullish scenario in play, with close above daily Kijun-sen line (1.1240) to confirm.
Conversely, violation of daily cloud (spanned between 1.1167 and 1.1187) will generate negative signal for further retracement of 1.1122/1.1256 recovery.
Res: 1.1225; 1.1240; 1.1282; 1.1325
Sup: 1.1187; 1.1167; 1.1148; 1.1122
GBPUSD
Cable remains offered as recovery attempts were so far capped under strong barrier at 1.3100 zone (daily Ichimoku cloud base) and subsequent reversal returned below 1.3000 level and retraced the largest part of 1.2943/1.3118 recovery.
Near-term studies are returning to full bearish mode, while daily technicals remain negative and favor further downside attempts. Near-term base at 1.2945 zone is marking key support and coming under increased pressure. Break here is needed to confirm an end of corrective phase and re-focus post-Brexit lows at 1.2864 and 1.2795.
Meantime, extended consolidation could be expected while 1.2945 base holds. Limited upside attempts are expected to precede fresh bears.
Daily cloud base and bear-channel upper boundary remain as key near-term barriers.
Res: 1.3045; 1.3095; 1.3141; 1.3193
Sup: 1.2960; 1.2945; 1.2900; 1.2864
USDJPY
Recovery rally from strong 100.00 support zone shows signs of stall, as rallies were so far capped at initial resistance zone (111.23) and hourly studies losing momentum. With overall structure holding firm bearish tone, we see limited upside action (extended upticks are expected to hold below 111.71 Tenkan-sen barrier), before bears resume.
Psychological support at 100.00, which resisted yesterday’s attack, remains in near-term focus. Break here is needed to open post-Brexit lows at 99.52 (low of 16 Aug) and 98.98 (24 June low).
Only violation of 102.26/68 breakpoints (daily cloud base / bear-trendline from 111.43 (30 May high), will neutralize bears and signal stronger recovery.
Res: 101.23; 101.40; 101.71; 102.06
Sup: 100.68; 100.00; 99.52; 98.98
AUDUSD
The Aussie pulls back from the top of steep four-day rally that peaked at 0.7672 and retraced over 76.4% of 0.7730/0.7440 downleg. Dips extended below daily cloud top at 0.7633, signaling stronger correction before fresh attempts towards key short-term barrier at 0.7730 (08 Sep peak).
Next solid support lies at 0.7585 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7444/0.7672 upleg, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen), where extended correction should be contained.
Only return below 0.7556 (daily Tenkan-sen / 50% retracement) would question near-term bulls. Lower breakpoint lies at 0.7520 (base of thick daily cloud).
Res: 0.7651; 0.7672; 0.7730; 0.7758
Sup: 0.7607; 0.7585; 0.7556; 0.7520