Technical Outlook for Majors 22/07/2016
EURUSD
The Euro continues to trade in directionless near-term mode, confirmed by yesterday’s long-legged Doji candle. Psychological 1.1000 support still holds, despite repeated downside attempts which were so far contained at 1.0980 zone. Neutral near-term studies support further sideways mode, however, overall structure remains biased lower. The notion is supported bearishly aligned daily Ichimoku studies and double Death Cross pattern (10/200 and 20/200SMA’s), which suggest fresh downside action after consolidation phase is completed.
Firm break below 1.1000 zone would open way towards weekly cloud base at 1.0952 and key short-term support at 1.0909 (post-Brexit low).
Also, the pair is on track for the third consecutive weekly bearish close.
Initial resistance lies at 1.1058, near-term consolidation top, followed by daily Tenkan-sen at 1.1071 and key 200SMA barrier at 1.1081.
Res: 1.1044; 1.1058; 1.1071; 1.1081
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0980; 1.0952; 1.0909
AUDUSD
The pair maintains weak near-term tone, with daily studies turning into bearish setup and suggesting further weakness. Past three days action was generally directionless, entrenched within 0.7451 and 0.7515 range, but remains capped by daily 20SMA, which is starting to turn lower.
In addition, bearish signals were generated on penetration through daily cloud top and probe below daily Kijun-sen line that were offering solid support.
Pivotal 0.7453 support (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7317/0.7673 upleg) so far contained dips and marks near-term consolidation range floor, break of which is needed to signal resumption of larger bear-leg from 0.7673 (15 July recovery top).
The pair is on track for the first bearish weekly close after seven consecutive bullish weeks, with fresh weakness breaking below weekly cloud top and generating additional bearish signals.
Res: 0.7488; 0.7515; 0.7536; 0.7590
Sup: 0.7453; 0.7400; 0.7357; 0.7317
USDJPY
The pair bounced off yesterday pullback’s low at 105.40, but consolidation phase remains capped under the mid-point of 107.47/105.40 pullback, with near-term technicals in mixed mode, suggesting limited upside action for now. The notion is supported by descending daily cloud, which capped multi-day recovery at 107.47 yesterday and currently lies at 106.60.
While the price action remains under the cloud, downside is expected to stay vulnerable of further weakness.
Renewed attack at temporary footstep at 105.40, would trigger fresh easing towards pivotal 104.60 support (Fibo 38.2% of 99.97/107.47 upleg) and 103.72 (50% retracement) in extension.
Rising daily Tenkan-sen line offers interim support at 104.95.
Only firm penetration through cloud’s base would sideline persisting downside risk and re-expose Thursday’s high at 107.40. Upside breakpoint lies at 107.70 (daily cloud top).
Res: 106.48; 106.60; 107.00; 107.40
Sup: 106.00; 105.55; 105.40; 104.95
GBPUSD
Cable fell back to the floor of near-term 1.3153/1.3273 range, being hit by weak UK data. Fresh weakness emerged after another failure in attempt to break above near-term congestion and attack initial pivots at 1.3312/19 zone (18 July high / Fibo 23.6% of larger 1.5015/1.2795 fall).
Surge through thick hourly Ichimoku cloud generated bearish signal for final attempt below near-term range.
Near-term studies are weakening and suggest further downside pressure, with overall bearish picture keeping the downside vulnerable, as fresh weakness probes again below daily Tenkan-sen line, which offered good support during past few sessions.
Sustained break below would add on existing bearish pressure, as the pair is on track for bearish weekly lose, although, weekly candle is in long-legged shape that signals no clear direction.
Focus remains on coming results of Brexit impact that are expected to be pound’s main driver, with today’s data already signaling expectations of slowing GDP.
Res: 1.3215; 1.3288; 1.3312; 1.3335
Sup: 1.3130; 1.3116; 1.3100; 1.3063
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