Technical Outlook for Majors 21/09/2016
EURUSD
The Euro fell below 1.1148 support that kept the downside protected in past three days and touched key near-term support at 1.1122 (31 Aug low). Fresh weakness is now establishing below thin daily cloud (spanned between 1.1159/67), with firm break below 1.1122 and close below 1.1108 (Fibo 61.8% of larger 1.0950/1.1365 ascend) required to confirm bearish stance for extension of bear-leg from 1.1282 (15 Sep lower top).
Daily studies are turning into full bearish setup after 200SMA support at 1.1146 has been cracked and daily Tenkan-sen line turned into steep descend after forming bear-cross with Kijun-sen line, maintaining bearish pressure.
Top of daily cloud marks initial resistance at 1.1167, followed by daily Tenkan-sen at 1.1203 and Tuesday’s spike high at 1.1212.
Daily Kijun-sen marks the upper breakpoint at 1.1243.
Expect sideways trading ahead of FOMC announcement, which is expected to accelerate markets.
Res: 1.1167; 1.1212; 1.1243; 1.1282
Sup: 1.1122; 1.1108; 1.1048; 1.1000
GBPUSD
Cable posted marginally lower low of five weeks at 1.2943 today, with near-term action holding in consolidative phase between 1.2943 and 1.3000. Yesterday’s close in red and below psychological 1.3000 barrier, generated negative signal for further easing, as the pair came under increased pressure after breaking below daily cloud.
Bear-cross of daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen lines, as well multiple bear-crosses of daily MA’s maintain bearish pressure for final push towards target at 1.2864 (15 Aug low).
Strong offers lay at 1.3000 zone, which is seen as ideal cap, guarding 1.3060 zone and daily cloud base at 1.3137, reinforced by falling daily Tenkan-sen line.
Res: 1.3000; 1.3063; 1.3089; 1.3137
Sup: 1.2943; 1.2900; 1.2864; 1.2795
USDJPY
Japanese yen strengthens further, signaling that BOJ’s action misses, despite the central bank delivered most of expected actions. The pair eased below post-BOJ low at 100.98 on fresh bearish acceleration from day’s high at 102.77, where falling trendline capped upside attempts.
This signals persisting strong downside pressure, provided by bear-trendline from 111.43 and falling daily Ichimoku cloud.
Fresh weakness extended the wave C from 103.43 (14 Sep higher low) to crack 100.65 (Fibo 76.4% of 99.52/104.30 upleg), with extension towards psychological 100.00, also Fibonacci 100% expansion, seen likely. Loss of the latter would re-expose post-Brexit lows at 99.52 (16 Aug) and 98.98 (24 June low / near FE 138.2%).
Former lows at 101.18 and 101.40/50 now offer initial resistances, while 102.00 zone marks solid barrier, where falling daily Tenkan-sen is attempting to form bear-cross with Kijun-sen line.
Res: 100.98; 101.18; 101.50; 101.96
Sup: 100.00; 99.52; 98.98; 98.81
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar maintains firm tone against the greenback in the near term, with today’s fresh acceleration higher that emerged from narrow consolidation, breaking above daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen barriers at 0.7547 and 0.7585 respectively.
Round-figure resistance at 0.7600 was tested so far, with focus on key barriers at 0.7619 and 0.7629 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7730/0.7440 / daily Ichimoku cloud top).
Daily moving averages are turning into full bullish setup that is expected to support further upside action. Break above daily cloud is needed to confirm bullish continuation.
However, corrective easing may precede fresh bulls, as Slow Stochastic is entering overbought territory. Dips should be contained above 0.7530/20 (near-term consolidation floor / daily cloud base) to keep bullish structure intact.
Res: 0.7619; 0.7629; 0.7661; 0.7690
Sup: 0.7585; 0.7563; 0.7530; 0.7520