EUR/USD

The Euro bounced after yesterday’s fall that was contained by strong daily Kijun-sen support at 1.0585, sidelining downside risk seen on firm break below 1.0600 zone.
Fresh bullish acceleration extends today and eventually penetrated into daily cloud (currently spanned between 1.0638 & 1.0831).
Broadly offered US dollar helped Euro to emerge from dangerous zone and shift near-term focus higher.
Bullish setup of daily studies supports scenario that requires close inside cloud to generate bullish signal.
Firm break above next pivots at 1.0705/18 (cracked Fibo 38.2% of 1.1298/1.0339 descend / 17 Jan recovery high) would trigger fresh acceleration that may extend towards next key barrier at 1.0831 (daily cloud top / descending 100SMA.
Politics are expected to take control from economics today, as markets are awaiting the inauguration of new US President, Donald Trump and his first steps in the office.
Traders will be closely watching Trump’s comments that may trigger stronger market movements. If Trump talks about fiscal policies, the Dollar would receive strong support and conversely would accelerate lower if he turns focus on trade restrictions, promised in his campaign.\

Res: 1.0705; 1.0718; 1.0795; 1.0831
Sup: 1.0650; 1.0631; 1.0585; 1.0573

USDJPY

Extension of strong bounce from correction low at 112.55 showed initial signs of stall, after daily Kijun-sen capped recovery at 115.60 (50% of 118.59/112.55 pullback) and daily candle with long upper shadow was left on Thursday. However, bullishly aligned near-term technicals favor further upside, as thickening daily Ichimoku cloud (cloud top is currently at 114.10) is continuing to underpin. Consolidation between daily cloud top and Kijun-sen line is expected to precede fresh attempts higher, with break above 115.57 pivot, to trigger fresh recovery towards 116.28 (Fibo 61.8%) and 116.85 (11 Jan lower top) in extension. Conversely, strong bearish signals could be expected on penetration into daily cloud that would trigger fresh weakness towards 113.71 (Fibo 61.8% of 112.55/115.60 recovery leg) and re-expose 112.55 handle on firm break lower.

Res: 115.11; 115.60; 116.28; 116.85

Sup: 114.40; 114.10; 113.71; 113.17

GBP/USD

Yesterday’s bounce from 1.2250 zone where Wednesday’s strong fall found support, turned near-term focus higher again, but there is still no clear direction, as daily technicals are mixed.

Daily cloud base (currently at 1.2385) offers immediate and strong resistance, ahead of Tue/Wed strong upside rejection at 1.2415, where 55SMA capped Tuesday’s sharp acceleration higher.

These barriers are expected to weigh on near-term action, with overbought daily Slow Stochastic, giving negative signal that keeps the downside vulnerable.

Break out of near-term congestion is needed to define direction, with sustained lift above 1.2415/30 pivots expected to open 1.2500 zone, while loss of 1.2250 handle, would be seen as a trigger for fresh weakness.

Extension below 1.2200 (daily Tenkan-sen) is needed to confirm bearish resumption from 1.2415 peak.

Res: 1.2385; 1.2415; 1.2430; 1.2500
Sup: 1.2323; 1.2275; 1.2250; 1.2200

AUD/USD

The pair returned to near-term range, following failure to clearly break above three-day congestion, earlier today.

Daily studies remain in strong bullish setup and favor eventual sustained break above 0.7570 congestion tops, for resumption of bear-leg from 0.7160 support zone.

Initial barrier lies at 0.7600, ahead of 0.7630 (Fibo 76.4% of 0.7776/0.7158 descend).

However, caution on repeated upside rejections that would indicate rally’s stall and risk fresh bearish acceleration.

Stronger negative signals for such scenario require sustained break below 0.7500 pivot (converged 100/200 SMA’s) that may extend towards supports at 0.7425 and 0.7405.

Res: 0.7570; 0.7586; 0.7600; 0.7630
Sup: 0.7527; 0.7495; 0.7425; 0.7405

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