EUR/USD

The Euro is consolidating recent losses on Friday. Two-day bearish acceleration dipped to fresh low at 1.0365 (the lowest since Jan 2003) and closed below former critical support (2015 low) at 1.0461. Recent action generated strong bearish signals for fresh downside, as daily studies remain in firm bearish setup.

Meantime, expect upticks on profit-taking action, with former critical support at 1.0461 now offering initial resistance (along with 1.0481 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0668/1.0365 downleg), followed by 1.0552 (Fibo 61.8%) and 1.0605 (10/20 SMA bear cross) which should cap extended recovery attempts.

We look for a weekly close that should occur below 1.0461, to confirm break. Otherwise, extended consolidation would be likely scenario in the near-term.

Lower top at 1.0668 (14 Dec high) marks first pivot, while the upper breakpoint lies at 1.0872 (08 Dec spike high).

Res: 1.0461; 1.0481; 1.0537; 1.0552
Sup: 1.0404; 1.0365; 1.0345; 1.0297

GBP/USD

The pair trades higher in early Friday, after recent fall from 1.2720 was contained by daily cloud base (currently at 1.2370).

Hesitation at this strong support was anticipated, with upticks on profit-taking, seen as selling opportunities for renewed attempt below daily cloud and nearby strong support at 1.2345 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2081/1.2772 rally).

Daily MA’s turned into bearish setup and support scenario, while Momentum and MACD are holding at the midlines.

Broken daily Kijun-sen at 1.2536 should limit corrective upticks, to keep focus at the downside.

Conversely, sustained break here and converging Tenkan-sen line at 1.2573, would sideline downside threats and possibly turn focus towards strong barrier at 1.2720 (daily cloud top).

Res: 1.2456; 1.2506; 1.2536; 1.2573
Sup: 1.2370; 1.2345; 1.2300; 1.2244

USD/JPY

The pair remains in a steep ascend and holding near yesterday’s fresh high at 118.65 (the highest level since 03 Feb).

Firm bullish setup on daily chart supports bulls, ignoring for now strongly overextended studies.

Extended wave C is eyeing its 300% Fibonacci expansion at 119.07, followed by 119.50 (Fibo 76.4% of larger 125.84/98.98 pullback) and finally psychological 120.00 barrier.

Session low at 117.94 marks immediate support, followed by 117.16 (Fibo 38.2& of past two-day rally from 114.76 to 118.65) and 116.96 (yesterday’s low / broken FE 261.8%).

Rising daily Tenkan-sen (currently at 115.87) should contain extended dips.

Res: 118.65; 119.07; 119.50; 120.00
Sup: 117.94; 117.16; 115.87; 114.76

AUD/USD

The Aussie stays in red, consolidating above yesterday’s fresh low at 0.7335, posted after strong fall in past two days.
Two long red daily candles heavily weigh, as the price is looking for final push towards key support at 0.7308 (21 Nov low).
The pair is also on track for bearish weekly close. Red weekly candle with long upper shadow adds on bearish pressure.
Hesitation at 0.7308 support could be expected as daily Slow Stochastic is strongly oversold (no bullish signal yet).
Former higher low / session high at 0.7368, now marks initial resistance and caps upside for now, with extended upticks expected to stay below 0.7428 (15 Dec high / 20SMA).
Sustained break below strong 0.7300 support zone would trigger fresh weakness that may extend towards 0.7143 (24/30 My higher base).

Res: 0.7368; 0.7407; 0.7428; 0.7451
Sup: 0.7335; 0.7308; 0.7283; 0.7226

, Daily Market Outlook