Technical Outlook for Majors 16/09/2016
EURUSD
The Euro continues to lack direction, as yesterday’s spike higher was short-lived and the price returned to the familiar levels, holding within narrowing range. The pair so far failed to capitalize from strong bullish signal, generated on 06 Sep long green candle, as repeated upside attempts lacked momentum for sustained break above near-term congestion. Long-legged Doji is forming on weekly chart, confirming strong near-term indecision.
Boundaries of near-term triangle lay at 1.1213 / 1.1265 and mark initial support / resistance levels.
On the downside, higher base at 1.1200 zone, also Fibo 61.8% of 1.1122/1.1325 upleg marks lower breakpoint, loss of which will signal bearish action towards daily cloud top at 1.1167 and key support at 1.1118.
At the upside, recent rejection levels at 1.1182/84, mark the top of near-term congestion and sustained break here is needed to turn focus towards targets at 1.1325/65.
Res: 1.1248; 1.1265; 1.1284; 1.1325
Sup: 1.1228; 1.1213; 1.1197; 1.1167
GBPUSD
Thursday’s Doji candle signals indecision, as near-term price action holds within the range for the third day. Repeated failures at key 1.3165 support (daily cloud base / Kijun-sen line, triggered extended consolidation, which remains capped under strong barrier at 1.3290 (daily Tenkan-sen line).
Near-term studies are in neutral / negative mode, while daily technicals are mixed, suggesting further sideways trading, ahead of fresh attempts lower, as overall picture remains bearishly aligned.
The second red candle is forming on weekly chart and supporting negative scenario.
Firm break below daily cloud is expected to open way for further retracement of 1.2864/1.3443 rally. Its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement offers initial support at 1.3085, followed by 1.3057 (30 Aug trough) and psychological 1.3000 support.
To sideline bearish threats, sustained break above 1.3300 barrier is needed.
Res: 1.3245; 1.3276; 1.3290; 1.3344
Sup: 1.3189; 1.3165; 1.3126; 1.3085
USDJPY
Strong bearish pressure persists, as the pair enters the third day in red, after recent upside attempts were capped by falling daily cloud. Fresh probes below strong support at 101.92 (daily Kijun-sen line), signal further bearish action which may extend towards key near-term support at 101.18 (07 Sep trough), break of which will complete daily Failure Swing pattern and open way for further retracement of larger 99.52/104.30 ascend.
Formation of the second bearish weekly candle supports scenario.
Today’s action was unable to clearly break above 102.00 zone that marks initial resistance, ahead of 102.48, south-heading daily Tenkan-sen line. Plethora of strong barriers that maintain bearish pressure is reinforced by daily cloud base at 102.74.
Only break here and lift above 103.00 barrier will ease bear-pressure.
Res: 102.11; 102.37; 102.48; 102.74
Sup: 101.72; 101.40; 101.18; 100.65
AUDUSD
Yesterday’s strong bounce from double-bottom that was left at 0.7440, might signal stronger bounce, as steep descend from 0.7730 high was contained by ascending daily cloud base. Also, a pause in recent bear-action, was signaled by failure to firmly break below weekly cloud top, reinforced by weekly Kijun-sen line that offers good support at 0.7490 zone.
However, daily studies are bearish and see scope for fresh leg lower, after current corrective phase is over. Bounce so far reached levels just above 0.7500, with daily Slow Stochastic reversing from oversold territory and signaling further recovery.
Next strong resistance zone lies between 0.7551 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7730/0.7440) and 0.7565 (12/13 Sep highs, reinforced by falling 10/20SMA’s).
Extended correction is expected to face solid resistance here, which should ideally cap recovery action.
Conversely, firm break higher will signal stronger correction and expose barriers at 0.7585 and 0.7619.
Res: 0.7524; 0.7565; 0.7585; 0.7619
Sup: 0.7496; 0.7440; 0.7396; 0.7369