EUR/USD

Near-term structure is bullishly aligned, as today’s fresh strength is attempting above strong barriers at 1.0657/65 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0872/1.0525 downleg / yesterday’s high) that would open way towards next trigger at 1.0688 (daily Tenkan-sen).

Overall picture is bearish, but daily indicators are turning higher and may signal probes into the upper side of larger 1.05/1.08 range, where the price is entrenched in past weeks.

Results of FOMC meeting is closely watched for stronger signals, with widely expected outcome to keep the Euro under pressure for renewed attack at recent lows at 1.05 zone and extension towards critical support at 1.0461 (2015 low).

On the other side, firm break above Tenkan-sen line would attract the upper barriers at 1.0760/1.0800, above which breakpoints at 1.0872/1.0900 (08 Dec spike high / daily Kijun-sen) would come in focus.

Res: 1.0663; 1.0688; 1.0739; 1.0790
Sup: 1.0618; 1.0600; 1.0587; 1.0525

GBPUSD

Cable showed strong hesitation at daily cloud top (1.2710) which capped yesterday’s action.
Subsequent easing left red daily candle with long upper shadow that weighs on n/t action.
Today’s price action is holding around rising Tenkan-sen (currently at 1.2660) and ability to hold above it, would keep n/t focus at the upside.
Firm break above daily cloud is needed to generate bullish signal for resumption of broader recovery rally from 1.2081. Otherwise, fresh downside risk towards key supports at 1.2550/36 (higher base/daily Kijun-sen), could be expected in case of firm break below daily Tenkan- sen line.
Outcome of FOMC meeting is expected to give stronger signals.

Res: 1.2674; 1.2720; 1.2772; 1.2800
Sup: 1.2639; 1.2600; 1.2550; 1.2536

USDJPY

The pair is trading in extended narrow consolidation under fresh high at 116.11 (the highest since early Feb). Near-term price action is holding above the footstep at 114.71 and capped at 115.46. Studies on lower timeframes are mixed, while dailies are overextended. Daily Tenkan-sen line which is underpinning the action, is turning sideways (currently at 114.48) that could be seen as initial signal of rally’s stall. Also, bearish divergence on daily RSI/MACD, supports the notion. We need to see clear break below daily Tenkan-sen line for bearish signal for extension towards hourly cloud (spanned between 113.20 and 113.77) and 113.10/112.85 pivots, break of which would signal stronger correction. Conversely, sustained break above n/t range top at 115.46, would shift focus towards 116.11 peak.

Res: 115.46; 115.58; 116.11; 117.00

Sup: 115.00; 114.71; 114.48; 114.25\

AUDUSD

The pair remains hesitant at key 0.7500 zone barrier that was cracked on extension to 0.7521, but without clear break so far. Yesterday’s Doji candle confirms indecision, however, bullishly aligned near-term techs keep focus at the upside for now. Sustained break above 0.7500 zone is seen as minimum requirement, with violation of 200SMA (currently at 0.7529), needed to confirm bullish resumption. Meantime, dips should hold above rising daily Tenkan-sen line (currently at 0.7460), to keep scenario alive. Conversely, firm break below Tenkan-sen would signal repeated rejection at 0.7500 zone and turn n/t focus lower again.

Res: 0.7505; 0.7521; 0.7529; 0.7556

Sup: 0.7480; 1.7460; 0.7440; 0.7410

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