Technical Outlook for Majors 14/10/2016
EURUSD
The Euro came under pressure again and returned to 1.1000 support, which was cracked on Thursday. The first attempt below 1.1000 was rejected at 1.0984, however, subsequent bounce was also short-lived and stalled at 1.1060 zone, where base of weekly Ichimoku cloud marks good resistance.
Overall sentiment remains negative, as hopes of US rate hike rise and technical studies holding firm bearish tone. The pair is on track for strong bearish weekly close, as weakness of past week mark the strongest weekly loss since the third week of June.
Break and close below 1.1000 handle is needed to confirm bearish stance for final push towards targets at 1.0950/09 (higher lows of 25 July and 24 June).
Initial resistance lies at 1.1024 (base of thick hourly cloud), ahead of triple upside rejections at 1.1060 zone which is reinforced by weekly cloud base, which kept intact key near-term barriers at 1.1100/22.
US economic data, due later today are expected to give strong direction signals.
Res: 1.1024; 1.1060; 1.1100; 1.1122
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0984; 1.0950; 1.0909
GBPUSD
Pound eased below 1.2200 mark, reversing gains of past two days that peaked at 1.2323, with near-term studies returning back to negative mode. Overall structure remains bearish from the technical point of view, however, recent boost received from positive fundamentals, keep the pair afloat and off n/t lows.
Overall negative sentiment on fears of hard Brexit maintains downside pressure and while the price holds below 1.2323 (high of n/t recovery attempts) the downside is expected to remain at risk. Violation of Tuesday’s low at 1.2087 will signal an end of n/t consolidation and re-open key 1.2000 support area.
The pair is on track for the second strong bearish weekly close, which supports negative scenario.
Alternatively, sustained break above 1.2323 would signal fresh upside extension towards 1.2400 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3055/1.1997) and 1.2427 (falling daily Tenkan-sen line) that mark next pivotal barriers.
Res: 1.2259; 1.2270; 1.2323; 1.2400
Sup: 1.2166; 1.2131; 1.2087; 1.1997
USDJPY
Daily Ichimoku cloud top proved again as very strong support, as Thursday’s strong pullback from fresh high at 104.62 was contained there and daily cloud (spanned between 102.32 and 103.50) continues to underpin near-term action. Fresh upside attempt on Friday that emerged above cloud top, probes above 104.00 barrier and extension to 104.25 high, so far retraced over 61.8% of 104.62/103.31pullback.Near-term focus is turned up again and eyes Thursday’s peak at 104.62. Daily close above 104.43 (cracked Fibo 61.8% of 107.47/99.52 descend), is required to confirm bullish continuation. Break above 104.62 will open round-figure barrier at 105.00 and 105.60 (Fibo 76.4% of 107.47//99.52) in extension.
Only firm break below daily cloud top at 103.50 will undermine bulls and weaken n/t structure.
Res: 104.30; 104.62; 105.00; 105.60
Sup: 103.95; 103.50; 103.31; 103.15
AUDUSD
Australian dollar is in strong bullish acceleration on Friday that retraced over 50% of 0.7708/0.7504 downleg on extension above 0.7600 barrier. Recovery from Thursday’s spike low at 0.7504, gained pace on bullish signal from long-tailed daily candle.
Fresh bulls now eye significant barrier at 0.7630 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7708/0.7504 downleg / the upper boundary of near-term triangle), firm break of which is needed to confirm recovery and expose next target at 0.7760 (Fibo 76.4%), with key 0.7708 barrier expected to come in focus.
Hourly troughs at 0.7569 and 0.7554 marks good supports which are expected to contain corrective dips on overbought near-term studies.
Res: 0.7630; 0.7660; 0.7688; 0.7708
Sup: 0.7605; 0.7569; 0.7554; 0.7537
, Daily Market Outlook