Technical Outlook for Majors 14/09/2016
EURUSD
The Euro continues to trade in triangular near-term consolidation, as Tuesday’s dips that closed the day in red, failed to break below significant 1.1200 support. However, pressure at the downside persists, as recovery attempts were so far limited by south-turning converged daily 5/20SMA’s at 1.1240 zone, which lies just under triangle’s upper boundary.
Mixed daily studies still don’t suggest clear direction, which requires firm break out of the triangle.
Extension below 1.1200 support zone will signal fresh weakness and expose initial support at 1.1170 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.1122/1.1325 upleg), ahead of more significant 1.1139/22 supports (05 Sep low / 31 Aug trough and n/t breakpoint).
Conversely, lift above bear-trendline at 1.1243, will open way for further retracement of 1.1325 / 1.1197 downleg and expose barriers at 1.1276; 1.1300 and key 1.1325 resistance.
Res: 1.1243; 1.1276; 1.1284; 1.1325
Sup: 1.1197; 1.1170; 1.1139; 1.1122
GBPUSD
Cable bounced from strong 1.3165 support (daily cloud base, reinforced by Kijun-sen line), following repeated rejection here.
Upside attempts from 1.3165, where hourly double-bottom was formed, were so far capped under 1.3233 barrier (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3344/1.3165), however, extended recovery cannot be ruled out. Next good resistance lies at 1.3275 (Fibo 61.8% retracement), with extended rallies expected to hold below here, to keep intact the upper breakpoint at 1.3300 (daily Tenkan-sen line).
Yesterday’s long red daily candle generated strong bearish signal and maintains pressure at key 1.3165 support.
Res: 1.3233; 1.3254; 1.3275; 1.3300
Sup: 1.3165; 1.3126; 1.3085; 1.3000
USDJPY
The pair jumped on Wednesday, extending strong rally of the previous day that ended in long green candle and generated strong bullish signal. The rally took out strong barriers at 102.74 (daily Tenkan-sen line) and former spike high of 09 Sep at 103.04. Fresh high was posted 103.34, just ticks ahead of next strong barrier at 103.42 (daily Ichimoku cloud base).
Daily studies turned into full bullish mode and supported further upside, with daily close above Tenkan-sen line, required to confirm scenario.
However, thick daily cloud (spanned between 103.42 and 105.20) marks significant barrier and hesitation to penetrate the cloud, could be anticipated.
We expect corrective dips to find solid support at 102.73/60 zone (broken daily Tenkan-sen / Fibo 38.2% of 101.40/103.34 recovery rally), before bulls resume, however, deeper correction cannot be ruled out. Next pivotal support lies at 102.14 (Fibo 61.8% retracement), above which, extended dips should be contained.
Conversely, break here will bring near-term bears back to play.
Res: 103.34; 103.42; 103.79; 104.00
Sup: 103.04; 102.73; 102.60; 102.14
AUDUSD
The pair bounces from fresh low of over two months at 0.7440, posted on Tuesday’s strong acceleration lower. Yesterday’s sharp fall eventually took out strong 0.7488 support (former trough of 31 Aug) and signaled further retracement of larger 0.7143/0.7758 ascend. Daily close in long red candle generated strong bearish signal, as weakness approached key supports at 0.7416/0.7395 (daily cloud base / 200SMA).
Recovery attempts are expected to hold below 0.7561 Highs of 12/13 Sep) to keep negative structure intact for fresh bearish action.
Res: 0.7490; 0.7561; 0.7585; 0.7619
Sup: 0.7454; 0.7440; 0.7416; 0.7395