Technical Outlook for Majors 12/09/2016
EURUSD
The Euro extended recovery from Friday’s low at 1.1197 on Monday and posted fresh recovery high at 1.1263. The rally offset immediate downside threats from Friday’s bearish acceleration that ended day in red.
The pair trades in extended consolidation after last Tuesday’s strong rally that generated strong bullish signal that lends support to the pair and maintains bullish bias.
Bullish setup of daily MA’s supports the notion, with daily Tenkan-sen line, which resisted Friday’s weakness, offering solid support at 1.1223, reinforced by thick 4-hour cloud top.
However, break above Friday’s top at 1.1284 is needed to signal fresh near-term direction and expose last Thursday’s spike high at 1.1325 for further bullish acceleration.
Daily close above 1.1272 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1365/1.1122 downleg) is seen as initial requirement to maintain positive near-term outlook.
On the downside, extension below daily Tenkan-sen would soften near-term tone and increase risk of return to 1.1197, lower breakpoint, loss of which would trigger fresh bearish acceleration.
Res: 1.1263; 1.1284; 1.1325; 1.1339
Sup: 1.1223; 1.1197; 1.1167; 1.1139
GBPUSD
Cable remains under pressure, following three consecutive days in red. Pullback from last week’s recovery high at 1.3443 dipped to 1.3237 on Friday, probing below 50% retracement of 1.3057/1.3442 upleg.
Early Monday’s trading showed limited recovery attempts, however, renewed pressure on cracked pivotal support at 1.3253 (daily Tenkan-sen line) persists.
Sustained break here would further soften the structure and expose next breakpoint at 1.3165 (daily cloud base, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line).
Near-term studies are weak and see limited recovery attempts (initial rallies were capped by Fibo 23.6% of 1.3443/1.3237 downleg), with extended upticks expected to hold below 1.3333 (last Friday’s high) pivot.
Res: 1.3286; 1.3316; 1.3333; 1.3364
Sup: 1.3253; 1.3237; 1.3200; 1.3165
USDJPY
The pair remains biased lower after weekly close in red and today’s fresh bearish acceleration that eyes strong support at 101.95 (Friday’s low, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, also near Fibo 61.8% of 101.18/103.04 upleg).
Friday’s upside rejection at 103.04 and failure to sustain break above pivotal daily Tenkan-sen line (102.74) weigh at near-term structure.
Near-term price action holds within daily Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines, which mark near-term breakpoints.
Loss of 101.95 support zone would trigger further bearish acceleration and look for return to key near-term support at 101.18 (07 Sep trough).
Conversely, firm break above daily Tenkan-sen barrier, would re-expose Friday’s peak and spark further bullish acceleration.
Res: 102.64; 102.74; 103.04; 103.79
Sup: 101.95; 101.18; 100.65; 100.00
AUDUSD
Strong bearish acceleration off 0.7730 spike high, extends into four day and approaches key near-term support at 0.7488 (31 Aug trough).
Long bearish daily candle, formed on Friday and red weekly candle with long upper shadow, maintain strong bearish pressure.
Daily studies are entering into full bearish mode, as the price penetrated the top of thick daily Ichimoku cloud, favoring further downside.
Firm break below 0.7488 trigger would open way for bearish extension towards next very strong support zone at 0.7410/0.7393 (daily cloud base / 200SMA).
Anticipate hesitation at strong 0.7488, as Slow Stochastic is entering oversold territory. We look for limited upside attempts towards 0.7540 (daily cloud top), possibly to 0.7585 (Fibo 38.2% of the downleg from 0.7730).
Only regain of daily Tenkan-sen line (0.7609), would sideline immediate downside threats.
Res: 0.7540; 0.7585; 0.7906; 0.7623
Sup: 0.7488; 0.7441; 0.7410; 0.7393