Technical Outlook for majors 07/12/2016
EURUSD
The Euro is flat just above 1.0700 handle, consolidating Tuesday’s fall, triggered after repeated failure on approach to important 1.08 resistance zone.
Tuesday’s bearish daily candle weighs, as fresh weakness cracked strong supports at 1.0700 area.
Near-term focus is turning lower again, after Friday’s strong rally and subsequent pullback showed no significant changes in near-term outlook, as technicals remain negatively aligned.
Firm break below 1.0700 (hourly cloud top) would generate negative signal for extension towards next pivot at 1.0649 (daily Tenkan-sen / hourly cloud base), loss of which would risk return to 1.0500 zone.
Alternative scenario requires rally above 1.0800 barrier to signal fresh bulls.
Res: 1.0750; 1.0795; 1.0807; 1.0849
Sup: 1.0700; 1.0649; 1.0615; 1.0573
GBPUSD
Cable returned into daily cloud after attempts above cloud top stalled ahead next strong barriers at 1.2800 zone.
Bearish extension of Tuesday’s pullback eyes initial support at 1.2610, with extended correction expected to ideally reverse above 1.2578 (daily Tenkan-sen), ahead of fresh attempts above daily cloud, as overall picture is bullish.
Deeper pullback, however, would risk extension towards 1.2500 breakpoint (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2081/1.2772 ascend / daily Kijun-sen), loss of which will generate stronger bearish signal.
Res: 1.2681; 1.2720; 1.2772; 1.2800
Sup: 1.2610; 1.2578; 1.2532; 1.2500
USDJPY
The pair is attempting to stabilize above 114.00 handle and maintaining bullish tone off 112.85 correction low, with rising 10SMA underpinning the action for now.
Scope is seen for retest of 114.81 high and probe above 115.00 barrier, which may result in probe above weekly cloud top (currently at 115.40).
However, overbought daily studies and Slow Stochastic / RSI bearish divergence, keep in play risk of pullback.
Daily 10SMA offers good support at 113.45, ahead of first trigger at 112.85 (05 Dec correction low), loss of which would generate stronger bearish signal.
Res: 114.38; 114.81; 115.40; 116.00
Sup: 113.92; 113.45; 113.07; 112.85
AUDUSD
Aussie dipped on Tuesday, pressured by downbeat Australian data. The pair is in red for the second day and approaching support at 0.7400 zone, following repeated rejection at strong 0.7500 resistance area.
Downside remains at risk, as studies are bearishly aligned and fresh downside extension probed below the first pivot at 0.7432 (daily Tenkan-sen line).
Sustained break below 0.7400 handle is needed to confirm reversal from 0.7500 and expose lower breakpoint at 0.7368 (01 Dec trough).
Corrective upticks are expected to stay capped under Asian session’s high at 0.7472.
Res: 0.7472; 0.7495; 0.7527; 0.7542
Sup: 0.7414; 0.7400; 0.7368; 0.7308