Technical Outlook for Majors 07/11/2016

Technical Outlook for Majors 07/11/2016

EURUSD
The Euro gapped lower on Monday and dipped to 1.1045 (daily Kijun-sen) so far, as news during the weekend turned the sentiment. The pair peaked at 1.1140 last Friday, on strong two-week rally, driven by uncertainty ahead of US election and ran out of steam just ahead of n/t target at 1.1157 (daily cloud top).
Today’s fresh weakness dented strong bullish structure and revived downside risk, after overnight’s recovery was rejected in attempt to cover the gap and strong support zone at 1.1060/45 (former consolidation low / 30 SMA / daily Kijun-sen) came under increased pressure. Firm break here would open way towards next pivots at 1.1029/00 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0849/1.1140 / daily Tenkan-sen), loss of which is needed to confirm bears back in play and signal further weakness.
Technicals are generating bearish signals, as daily RSI turned south and is below neutrality zone, while Slow Stochastic is emerging from overbought territory.
Corrective attempts from session low at 1.1045 should stay capped under overnight’s high at 1.1109, to maintain fresh downside pressure.
Conversely, filling overnight’s gap would neutralize immediate downside threats and shift focus higher again.
Markets are expected to be highly volatile and driven mainly by news ahead of tomorrow’s US elections.

Res: 1.1078; 1.1109; 1.1126; 1.1140
Sup: 1.1045; 1.1029; 1.1000; 1.0960

eurusd-07-11

GBPUSD

Cable is in red on Monday, for the first time in seven days, driven lower by news that came out over the weekend. The pair started week with gap lower and dipped to 1.2380 so far, the level that marks Fibo 38.2% retracement of six-day ascend from 1.2112 that peaked at 1.2555 on Friday.
Near-term structure weakened and downside is coming at risk, as fresh weakness extended over 100 pips after unsuccessful recovery that attempted to cover overnight’s gap and stalled at 1.2496.
Break below 1.2380 handle is needed to signal bearish resumption towards next strong support at 1.2330 zone (former congestion top, reinforced by rising daily Tenkan-sen line), loss of which would confirm reversal.
Daily Kijun-sen is again in steep descend and capped today’s action, adding on downside pressure, together with Slow Stochastic that is attempting to break out of overbought zone.
Alternative scenario requires regain of 1.2500 handle to neutralize rising downside pressure.
Res: 1.2446; 1.2496; 1.2519; 1.2555
Sup: 1.2380; 1.2330; 1.2281; 1.2217
gbpusd-07-11

USDJPY
The dollar advanced strongly against yen on Monday, following gap-higher opening of nearly 100-pips and fresh acceleration higher that retraced over 61.8% of last week’s 105.51/102.53 pullback.
Fresh recovery offsets impact of long red weekly candle, left last week and shifts near-term focus higher, as daily MA’s are returning to full bullish setup and Slow Stochastic is heading north after reversing from oversold territory, showing plenty of space upside.
To maintain fresh bullish sentiment, daily close above broken daily Tenkan-sen line at 104.02, is seen as minimum requirement. In addition, close above 104.37 (Fibo 61.8% of 105.51/102.53 descend), is needed confirm reversal and open way towards psychological 105.00 and recent peak at 105.51.
Conversely, firm break below daily Tenkan-sen line would soften structure and shift risk lower again.

Res: 104.61; 104.81; 105.00; 105.22
Sup: 104.37; 104.02; 103.75; 103.52

usdjpy-07-11

AUDUSD
The pair maintains overall bullish tone but shows initial signs of stall, following last Friday’s upside rejection under strong 0.7700 resistance zone and today’s rallies being so far capped few ticks below. Action of today is so far shaped in long-legged Doji candle that signals indecision, as 0.7700 zone has been attacked au number of times recently but without success.
Also, break above the upper boundary of near-term triangle did not generate stronger thrust for attack at key n/t targets at 0.7707/32, keeping the downside vulnerable for now. The notion is supported by overbought Slow Stochastic and loss of momentum on daily chart.
However, stronger bearish signals will be generated on break below today / Friday’s lows at 0.7656/50, while violation of daily Tenkan-sen line at 0.7631 is needed to confirm fresh n/t bears.
Otherwise, the upside will remain in near-term focus while 0.7656/50 supports remain intact, with sustained break above 0.7700 handle, expected to open targets at 0.7732/58.
Res: 0.7695; 0.7707; 0.7632; 0.7658
Sup: 0.7660; 0.7650; 0.7631; 0.7618

audusd-07-11, Daily Market Outlook