Technical Outlook for Majors 06/10/2016
EURUSD
The Euro ticked lower on Thursday and remains in the daily cloud, following several attempts higher that failed to sustain break above cloud top. Yesterday’s trading was shaped in long-legged Doji, signaling strong indecision, despite bullish signals on recent long-tailed daily candles.
Parallel-running daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines and 1.1207/23, mark strong resistance zone, which capped recent rallies, despite being cracked several times. Break and close above these barriers will signal bullish resumption and open targets at 1.1280 and 1.1325.
On the downside, daily cloud base, reinforced by bull-trendline from 1.0950 (25 July low) marks the first trigger at 1.1170. Firm break here is required to trigger fresh weakness for attack at spike lows at 1.1152/38 and key near-term support at 1.1122.
Res: 1.1211; 1.1223; 1.1249; 1.1280
Sup: 1.1183; 1.1170; 1.1138; 1.1122
GBPUSD
Cable posted new low at 1.2683, but closed in green yesterday, signaling near-term consolidation after strong two-day fall. Recovery attempts were so far limited, keeping intact strong resistance at 1.2795 (former key support).
Recovery actions are fading, as today’s fresh weakness probed again below 1.2700 handle. Firm bearish setup of technical studies maintains strong pressure, with extension of wave C, on which the price currently rides, focusing next Fibonacci Expansion targets at 1.2647 (FE 76.4% and 1.2520 (FE 100%).
Only firm break above former post-Brexit low at 1.2795 would delay bears and expose former low at 1.2864, reinforced by falling daily Tenkan-sen line.
Res: 1.2769; 1.2795; 1.2864; 1.2913
Sup: 1.2683; 1.2647; 1.2570; 1.2520
USDJPY
Another strong bullish signal was generated on extension of steep seven-day rally that eventually broke and close above daily Ichimoku cloud top at 103.22. The cloud is spanned between 102.34 and 103.22 and now acts as good support, above which today’s price action is so far supported.
Bulls are now probing above 100SMA barrier at 103.70 and looking for extension towards strong resistance zone at 104.30/43 (02 Sep peak / Fibo 61.8% of 107.47/99.52 fall).
Overbought Slow Stochastic suggest hesitation on approach to 104.30/43 barriers, however, no bearish signal was generated so far.
Broken daily cloud top now acts as solid support which should ideally contain dips.
Res: 103.72; 104.00; 104.30; 104.43
Sup: 103.33; 103.22; 102.65; 102.34
AUDUSD
Aussie penetrated daily cloud and cracked important 0.7588 support (daily Kijun-sen line), after yesterday’s trading was shaped in long-legged Doji candle that signaled indecision ahead of 0.7588 pivot. Clear break here is needed to complete daily Failure Swing pattern for further correction of 0.7440/0.7708 rally, towards next strong supports at 0.7542 (Fibo 61.8% retracement) and 0.7530 (daily cloud base).
Conversely, failure to clear 0.7588 support would trigger extended sideways trading, while bounce to daily Tenkan-sen barrier at 0.7641, is needed to sideline near-term bears and signal higher low formation.
Res: 0.7588; 0.7621; 0.7641; 0.7688
Sup: 0.7575; 0.7542; 0.7530; 0.7503