Technical Outlook for majors 05/11/2017

Technical Outlook for majors 05/11/2017

EUR/USD

Strong recovery rally from fresh marginally lower multi-year low at 1.0339 extends for the second day.

After daily Tenkan-sen barrier at 1.0495 was taken out, bullish acceleration extended above next significant resistance at 1.0542 (38.2% retracement of 1.0872/1.0339 descend).

Near-term focus turned towards upper breakpoints at 1.0605 (daily Kijun-sen) and 1.0650 (30 Dec spike high), break of which would signal stronger correction from daily double-bottom at 1.0651/39.

Near-term studies turned bullish and support further recovery, as daily 10&20 SMA’s moved to bullish setup.

Look for correction on overbought hourly studies that should be ideally contained at 1.0500/1.0480 zone, before fresh attempts higher, however, extended dips could be allowed towards 1.0430.

Loss of the latter would signal an end of n/t recovery phase.

Res: 1.0573; 1.0605; 1.0650; 1.0668
Sup: 1.0495; 1.0480; 1.0450; 1.0430

eurusd-05-01

GBP/USD

The price pulls back from session high at 1.2361, posted on brief extension of yesterday’s strong rally that sidelined immediate downside risk.

However, daily cloud that lies just above, continues to weigh, as overall picture is negative and current movements seen as consolidation ahead of fresh attempts lower.

Pullback from 1.2361 is pressuring pivotal 1.2300 support zone (daily Tenkan-sen / Fibo 38.2% of 1.2198/1.2361 recovery leg). Firm break here would soften near-term structure for extension towards next trigger at 1.2260 (Fibo 61.8%) and shift focus towards near-term consolidation range floor at 1.2200 zone.

Only sustained penetration into daily cloud would encourage for stronger correction of 1.2772/1.2198 fall.

Res: 1.2346; 1.2361; 1.2386; 1.2405
Sup: 1.2300; 1.2260; 1.2236; 1.2198

eurusd-05-01

USDJPY

Fresh extension lower today cracked key supports at 116.03 (former correction low) and 115.75 (rising daily Kijun-sen), increasing risk of reversal.
Double-top at 118.65/59 (15 Dec/03 Jan highs) weighs heavily on near-term action.
Daily close below Kijun-sen line is needed to confirm bearish scenario and expose next downside trigger at 114.71 (13 Dec low).
South-turning daily Tenkan-sen (currently at 117.08) is expected to ideally cap upticks.
Conversely, failure to clearly break below 116.03/115.75 pivots would signal extended sideways trading, with near-term focus shifted lower, while bear-trendline connecting 12 Aug/18 Dec 2015 highs caps.

Res: 118.03; 118.59; 118.65; 119.00
Sup: 117.65; 117.00; 116.41; 116.03

usdjpy-05-01

AUD/USD

Recovery rally from 0.7160 base extends into third straight day and cracked pivot at 0.7308 (21 Nov former low), threatening breakpoint at 0.7340 (daily Kijun-sen).

Near-term studies turned bullish, while daily indicators are heading south and supportive for extended recovery.

Corrective easing from today’s fresh recovery high at 0.7328 should be ideally contained above session low at 0.7271 (reinforced by 38.2% of 0.7163/0.7328 upleg), ahead of final attack at 0.7340 pivot and extension towards 0.7370/0.7400 on break.

Rising daily Tenkan underpins the action (currently at 0.7243) and only sustained break below the latter would sideline near-term bulls.

Res: 0.7328; 0.7340; 0.7370; 0.7400
Sup: 0.7271; 0.7243; 0.7226; 0.7200

audusd-05-01, Daily Market Outlook