Technical Outlook for Majors 05/10/2016
EURUSD
The Euro is holding above 1.1200 support zone where daily Ichimoku cloud top lies, after yesterday’s repeated downside failure that stalled at 1.1138 and sharp recovery that signaled another false break below daily cloud.
Yesterday’s long-tailed daily candle signaled that the pair remains supported, with daily cloud and bull-trendline from 1.0950 lows, marking significant supports that guard key 1.1122 higher base.
Bullishly aligned daily studies are expected to underpin near-term action, while the price holds above the cloud. Sustained break above 1.1225 barrier (daily Kijun-sen line / Fibo 61.8% of 1.1277/1.1136 downleg, is needed to confirm bullish resumption towards pivotal 1.1280 resistance zone.
Alternatively, renewed attempts below daily cloud top (1.1205) would signal fresh weakness and refocus cloud base / trendline support at 1.1167, which guards spike lows at 1.1152/38 and key 1.1122 support.
Final close below daily cloud is needed to confirm bearish scenario.
Res: 1.1225; 1.1249; 1.1280; 1.1325
Sup: 1.1200; 1.1167; 1.1138; 1.1122
GBPUSD
Cable probed below larger bear-channel support and posted new 31-year low at 1.2683 on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s sharp fall that eventually broke and closed below former critical support at 1.2795 (06 July post-Brexit low).
The pair currently rides on the third wave of five-wave descend from 1.3443, which broke below its 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2725 and could extend towards 76.4% and 100.00% Fibonacci Expansion at 1.2647 and 1.2520 respectively. The latter support also marks the low of June 1985.
Firm bearish sentiment supports further weakness, however, corrective actions on oversold studies are expected to interrupt fall. Session high at 1.2743 marks immediate resistance, while former strong supports at 1.2795 and 1.2864, now act as solid resistances, expected to ideally cap corrective rallies.
Res: 1.2743; 1.2795; 1.2864; 1.2913
Sup: 1.2683; 1.2647; 1.2570; 1.2520
USDJPY
The pair maintains strong bullish tone after yesterday’s strong rally that marked the biggest daily gains since end of August. Tuesday’s strong bearish acceleration that extended previous five days rally and broke above strong barriers between 101.85 and 102.17 (bear-trendline off 30 May peak / daily cloud base / daily Kijun-sen line), left long bullish daily candle and generated strong bullish signal. Also, daily close above 102.67 (Fibo 61.8% of 104.30/100.05 descend) confirms bullish stance.
Near-term price action consolidates within the narrow range under today’s marginally higher high at 102.99, with scope for final push towards next pivot at 103.22 (daily Ichimoku cloud top, above which will open 103.43 (14 Sep lower top) and 103.73 (100SMA) in extension.
Daily cloud base marks initial support at 102.34, followed by broken Kijun-sen line at 102.17, which is expected to limit corrective dips.
Res: 102.99; 103.22; 103.43; 103.75
Sup: 102.65; 102.34; 102.17; 101.75
AUDUSD
The Aussie remains at the back foot on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s strong fall that was shaped in long red daily candle. Fresh weakness attacked again daily cloud top which so far holds dips, guarding nearby second pivot at 0.7585 (daily Kijun-sen line). These supports should ideally contain near-term correction from 0.7708 peak, as overall structure remains bullish.
Lift above 0.7548 (daily Tenkan-sen line) is needed to confirm higher low formation.
Increased downside risk could be expected on violation of 0.7585 support which also marks correction low of 30 Sep, as firm break lower will complete Failure Swing pattern on the daily chart and trigger fresh weakness towards 0.7542 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7440/0.7708), possibly to .7530 (daily Ichimoku cloud base.
Res: 0.7648; 0.7688; 0.7708; 0.7730
Sup: 0.7600; 0.7585; 0.7542; 0.7530