Technical Outlook for Majors 04/11/2016
EURUSD
The Euro is directionless in the near-term, trading in extended consolidation under fresh high at 1.1126, posted on Thursday. The price is holding around 1.1100 handle, after repeated failure to close above 1.1114 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1277/1.0849 downleg).
Overall tone remains biased higher for attack at strong 1.1157/76 barriers (daily cloud base /200 SMA). Lift above past two-day highs needs to clear converged 55/100 SMA’s at 1.1133, to open near-term targets at 1.1157/76.
Session low at 1.1085 marks immediate support, ahead of strong supports at 1.1065 (where 5/30 SMA’s are forming bull-cross) and 1.1049 (daily Kijun-sen line), where dips should be ideally contained.
US data are expected to give more clues above near-term direction.
Res: 1.1126; 1.1133; 1.1157; 1.1176
Sup: 1.1085; 1.1065; 1.1049; 1.1020
GBPUSD
Cable is consolidating under fresh recovery high at 1.2492 and holding for now above broken 30SMA, currently at 1.2445. Long bullish candle that was left yesterday, underpins the price for attack at immediate barriers at 1.2500/09 (round-figure resistance / falling daily Kijun-sen line), with daily close above the latter needed to generate another bullish signal.
Daily studies are in strong bullish mode and supportive for further advance, as the pair is on track for strong bullish weekly close.
Firm break above 1.2500 handle would open 1.2549 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3443/1.1997 descend), with stronger bullish acceleration expected to bring in focus former critical support at 1.2795 (post-Brexit, July / October consolidation range low).
Below initial support at 1.2445 (30SMA), broken Fibo 38.2% of 1.3055/1.1997 downleg marks next support at 1.2401, followed by former breakpoint at 1.2330 (October’s consolidation range top).
Eyes are on today’s US jobs numbers, with weaker than expected release expected to maintain pounds strong bullish stance, while upbeat results would put Sterling under pressure.
Res: 1.2509; 1.2549; 1.2651; 1.2720
Sup: 1.2445; 1.2401; 1.2330; 1.2287
USDJPY
The pair is consolidating above fresh one-month low at 102.53, with upside attempts being limited for now by 30SMA. Steep descend of past couple of days, shaped in three long red daily candles, weighs on near-term structure for further easing. Break below 55SMA that offered temporary footstep will open 102.13 (Fibo 61.8% of 100.05/105.51 rally) and possibly trigger further bearish acceleration on close below the latter.
Daily 30SMA marks initial barrier at 103.24, followed strong resistance at 103.42/50 (yesterday’s high / daily cloud top) which is expected to cap extended upticks ahead of fresh weakness.
Alternatively, close above daily cloud top would ease immediate downside risk, while acceleration above 104.02 (daily Tenkan-sen line) is needed to neutralize.
Res: 103.24; 103.50; 104.02; 104.37
Sup: 102.81; 102.53; 102.13; 101.79