EURUSD

The Euro remains weak and returned near session low, after overnight’s recovery attempt stalled just under 1.0500 barrier.
Monday’s strong close in red signaled extended weakness from 1.0650 (last Friday’s spike high).
Friday’s strong upside rejection continues to weigh on near-term structure, however, two day weakness found temporary footstep at 1.0450 zone (daily 10SMA).
Risk remains shifted to the downside as near-term studies are turning into full bearish setup and daily bears stay intact.
Return below daily Tenkan-sen line (at 1.0510) and yesterday’s close below 1.0465 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.0351/1.0650 recovery leg) maintains downside pressure.
Break below 1.0465 handle would open 1.0400 and expose key support at 1.0351 (20 Dec fresh multi-year low).
Alternatively, close above daily Tenkan-sen would sideline immediate downside pressure and signal fresh attempts higher.
Next barriers lay at 1.0550 and 1.0611, with Friday’s peak at 1.0650, marking the upper breakpoint.
Res: 1.0489; 1.0510; 1.0550; 1.0611
Sup: 1.0450; 1.0406; 1.0370; 1.0350

GBPUSD

Downside pressure persists following Friday’s recovery rejection at 1.2386 and yesterday’s bearish extension that brought the price back below 1.2300 handle.
Brief recovery attempt in Asia was short-lived and fresh weakness is probing below 1.2270 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2198/1.2386 recovery leg), with firm break lower to signal an end of recovery phase from 1.2198 and expose supports at 1.2243 and 1.2198.
Bearish daily studies suggest fresh weakness, as near-term technicals are turning negative.
Daily Tenkan-sen marks significant resistance at 1.2292 and while it caps, downside is expected to remain at risk.
Firm break above here would ease downside pressure and possibly re-expose strong barriers at 1.2350 and 1.2400 zone.

Res: 1.2292; 1.2304; 1.2351; 1.2386
Sup: 1.2268; 1.2243; 1.2198; 1.2170

USD/JPY

Recovery rally from 116.03 (30 Dec correction low) extends in the third straight day and probes 118.00 (round-figure resistance / Fibo 76.4% of 118.65/116.03 pullback).

Daily techs returned to full bullish mode after rally retraced the largest part of 118.65/116.03 pullback, signaling renewed attack at key 118.59/65 barrier (bear-trendline connecting 12 Aug/18 Dec 2015 highs /15 Dec peak).

Sustained break here is needed to signal resumption of larger uptrend and expose next targets at 119.50 (Fibo 76.4% of 125.84/98.98 descend) and psychological 120.00 barrier.

Failure to clear 118.59/65 triggers would signal further consolidation that should be ideally contained at 117.00 (daily Tenkan-sen).

Alternative scenario requires return below 117.00 for attack at key 116.53 support, violation of which would signal deeper correction, as weekly studies are strongly overbought.

Res: 118.03; 118.59; 118.65; 119.00
Sup: 117.65; 117.00; 116.41; 116.03

AUD/USD

The pair managed to fully recover yesterday’s losses on strong bounce that peaked at 0.7233 and the price is consolidating at 0.7200 zone.

Renewed attempts lower were contained at 0.7160 that proves to be strong support zone.

Subsequent bounce is turning focus to the upper boundary of near-term 0.7160/0.7245 consolidation range, with sustained break here needed to signal stronger correction of 0.7523/0.7158 downleg.

Bearish daily technicals maintain downside risk and see limited upside action for now.

While 0.7245 barrier holds, the downside is expected to stay at risk, as 0.7160 base lies just ahead of next key support at 0.7143 (24 May trough), loss of which would trigger fresh bearish acceleration.

Conversely, firm break above 0.7245 would open 0.7300 zone (20SMA) and the upper breakpoint at 0.7340 (daily Kijun-sen line).

Res: 0.7233; 0.7245; 0.7300; 0.7340
Sup: 0.7200; 0.7177; 0.7160; 0.7143

, Daily Market Outlook