EURUSD

The Euro was flat in the first hours of trading in 2017 and holding within narrow range, around 1.0500 handle. Broken Tenkan-sen line at 1.0510, was so far holding, but the price is below 1.0550 trigger (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0872/1.0351 downleg).

Friday’s spike to 1.0650, on thin pre-holiday market, was short-lived, as the pair quickly reversed, signaling false break above breakpoint at 1.0611 (daily Kijun-sen). Bears continue to dominate on daily chart, suggesting limited near-term recovery, while mixed near-term studies show no clear direction. The pair is expected to trade in extended consolidation while daily Tenkan-sen is holding. Otherwise, renewed downside pressure could be expected on daily close below Tenkan-sen line. Friday’s low at 1.0481 marks next support, below which the price may accelerate towards 1.0400 zone. Conversely, close above 1.0550 would keep near-term focus at the upside, however, sustained break above daily Kijun-sen line is needed to confirm recovery.

Res: 1.0528; 1.0550; 1.0611; 1.0650
Sup: 1.0481; 1.0450; 1.0400; 1.0370

GBPUSD

Bullish near-term technicals keep the price above 1.2300 handle (broken daily Tenkan-sen), following two-day recovery that peaked at 1.2386 on Friday, capped just under daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.2395.
Today’s price action is holding within 40-pips range and showing no clear direction.
Fresh upside attempts could be expected while daily Tenkan-sen is holding, with risk of penetration into daily cloud and test of next trigger at 1.2418 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2772/1.2198 downleg).
Otherwise, return and close below daily Tenkan-sen would soften near-term structure, with extension below 1.2270 (hourly higher base / Fibo 61.8% of 1.2198/1.2386 recovery leg), to signal an end of near-term correction from 1.2198 (28 Dec low).

Res: 1.2351; 1.2385; 1.2418; 1.2485
Sup: 1.2310; 1.2293; 1.2270; 1.2243

USDJPY

Recovery rally from 116.03 (30 Dec recovery low) extends in the second day and is establishing above 117.00 trigger (daily Tenkan-sen / Fibo 38.2% of 118.65/116.03 pullback). Fresh bullish acceleration today revived near-term bulls that eye next triggers at 117.65 (Fibo 61.8% of 118.65/116.03) and 117.80 (28 Dec lower top), break of which to signal an end of corrective phase and re-focus 118.65 peak. Daily Tenkan-sen offers solid support at 117.13 and needs to stay intact to keep near-term bulls in play. Firm break below 117.00 handle would shift near-term focus lower. However, risk of deeper correction exists as weekly studies are overbought.

Res: 117.65; 117.80; 118.23; 118.65
Sup: 117.13; 116.93; 116.41; 116.03

AUDUSD

The pair accelerated lower in early Monday’s trading and fully retraced near-term recovery rally from 0.7160 lows that spiked at 0.7245.
However, Friday’s close was below daily Tenkan-sen line (currently at 0.7218) which offers strong resistance and capped today’s action.
Technical studies on daily chart remain firmly bearish, with bears coming back to play on lower timeframes and keeping the downside under pressure.
We may see extended hesitation at key 0.7160 support, before final break under 0.7160 and attack at nearby key support at 0.7143 (May 2016 trough), loss of which would open way towards psychological 0.7000 support.
Additional bearish signal was generated by weekly close below 0.7210 (Fibo 61.8% of larger 0.6825 / 0.7833 correction).
Alternative scenario requires break and close above daily Tenkan-sen, to confirm near-term base at 0.7160 and signal stronger correction.

Res: 0.7194; 0.7218; 0.7245; 0.7297
Sup: 0.7160; 0.7143; 0.7100; 0.7063

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