US CRUDE OIL
WTI oil is probing again above $44.00 level after falling to $43.55 after crude inventories miss on Tuesday.
American Petroleum Institute report, released on Tuesday, showed builds of 851.000 barrels in crude inventories, against forecasted draw of 2.6 million barrels that revived persisting concerns about oversupply.
Near-term action remains in green and supported by 10SMA ($43.62) for now, following strong four-day recovery rally from fresh multi-month low at $42.04 (21 June low) which was so far capped by Fibo 23.6% of $51.98/$42.04 descend.
Scope exists for further recovery towards next strong barrier at $45.04 (19 June lower top, reinforced by falling 20SMA) as slow stochastic is heading north and showing space for further upside.
However, corrective action is seen limited on bearish technicals and strong bearish sentiment regarding global supply glut, with $45.04 barrier expected to ideally cap.
All eyes are turned towards weekly crude stocks data from Energy Information Administration for stronger signals. Expectations show a draw of 2.5 million barrels, which is slightly above previous week’s 2.4 million barrels draw and will be supportive for oil prices on release near/above forecast.
Conversely, lower than expected numbers on Wednesday or even worse scenario of build in crude inventories, would send oil prices lower and risk return to $42.04 low.
Res: 44.17; 44.42; 45.04; 45.59
Sup: 43.62; 43.31; 42.62; 42.04