Technical Outlook 05/12/2016
EURUSD
The Euro dipped to 1.0504, 20-month low, after gap-lower opening on vote ‘no’ on Italy’s referendum. Sentiment is negative and looks for attempts below psychological 1.0500 support and attack at critical 1.0461 support (2015), loss of which would open way towards parity level, as technical studies are bearish.
Limited upside action is expected, with session high at 1.0626, offering good resistance.
Only sustained break above Friday’s high at 1.0688 and 1.0700 pivot would neutralize immediate downside threats.
Res: 1.0600; 1.0626; 1.0688; 1.0700
Sup: 1.0596; 1.0551; 1.0504; 1.0461
GBPUSD
Cable is consolidating under daily cloud top that was cracked after strong rally on Friday and today’s renewed probe that was capped at 1.2735 (the highest since 06 Oct).
Bullish daily studies along with strong bullish daily / weekly close on Friday, favor further upside and attack at initial post-Brexit lows at 1.2800 zone.
Expect hesitation at daily cloud top, with initial support at 1.2600 and extended dips not to exceed 1.2547 (daily Tenkan-sen line).
Res: 1.2735; 1.2795; 1.2850; 1.2890
Sup: 1.2625; 1.2600; 1.2558; 1.2518
USDJPY
The dollar rallies after pullback from fresh high at 114.81 was contained by rising daily Tenkan-sen at 112.85.
Firmly bullish studies favor further upside and extension above 114.81 peak, towards weekly cloud top at 115.40.
Recovery off 112.85 low needs to return above 114.00 handle to confirm reversal and expose 114.81 pivot. In addition sustained break above 114.28 (Fibo 61.8% of 123.74/98.98 descend) is needed to confirm.
Caution overbought daily studies and bearish divergence on daily RSI / Slow Stochastic. Firm break below daily Tenkan-sen would generate bearish signal.
Res: 114.18; 114.70; 114.81; 115.40
Sup: 113.31; 112.85; 112.04; 111.60
AUDUSD
Aussie is holding above 0.7400 handle on Monday, following pullback from recovery high at 0.7467, as two-day rally showed signs of stall.
Overall bears keep the downside vulnerable and see risk of lower top under 0.7475 (falling 20SMA), before fresh attempts lower.
Key near-term levels lay at 0.7495 /0.7368, with sustained break of either, needed to signal clearer direction.
Plethora of strong resistances above 0.7500, keeps n/t risk shifted lower, with firm break below 0.7368 pivot, needed to complete daily Failure Swing pattern and signal fresh weakness that may stretch to the support at 0.7308 (21 Nov low).
Res: 0.7467; 0.7495; 0.7526; 0.7542
Sup: 0.7427; 0.7410; 0.7368; 0.7308
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