Midday market view 23/11/2016
The US dollar surged across the board after opening of American session, boosted by upbeat US data. Release of US durable goods orders showed October’s figures at 4.8% well above forecast at 1.2%, while core release also beat forecast at 0.2%, coming at 1.0% in October.
Strong durables numbers offset US weekly jobless claims that rose slightly more than expected in the previous week, when it hit 43-year low at 235K which was revised lower to 233K.
Strong data added the optimism over the strength of the US economy, also boosting expectations of US rate hike in December. CME Fed Watch toll which tracks probabilities of FOMC rate move rose to 93.5% probability of rate hike in Fed’s next meeting in December.
The dollar index rallied to fresh 14-year highs, being up 0.74% by the time of writing and approaching psychological 102.00 barrier.
The Euro fell sharply and took out former low at 1.0567, heading towards 1.0519/00 targets (Dec 2015 / round-figure support), with extension to another critical support at 1.0461 (March 2015 low), seen in extension. The single currency fell so far 0.74% against the dollar from Wednesday’s opening.
The greenback broke above 112.00 barrier against yen and penetrated weekly cloud, base of which was acting as solid resistance at 112.12. The pair hit the highest level since March, on rally that so far reached high at 112.45, up 1.10% since opening today.
Australian dollar erased the largest part of today’s gains that peaked at 0.7443, as fresh weakness, triggered by dollar’s rally, dipped 0.7371, session low.
Gold was among the top losers of the session, falling to fresh low at $1188, the lowest since early February. The yellow metal was under strong pressure, as the dollar strengthened after US elections, with rising expectations of US rate hike, adding pressure on Gold’s price. Fresh acceleration lower took out strong support at $1200, opening way for further easing. Gold was so far down 1.82% and on track for the biggest one-day loss since November 11.
European stocks were in red on Wednesday and accelerated further down on fresh dollar’s strength. FSE100 dipped from fresh one-week high at 6872, down 0.92% from today’s opening. DAX was down 1.11% and touched strong support at 10600, while CAC 40 was also down 1.14%.
Wall Street opened lower on Wednesday as a drop in the healthcare sector took the shine off a post-election rally that had powered Wall Street to record levels.
Dow Jones was down 0.06% after opening, S&P fell 0.25%, while Nasdaq was 0.38% down.
Dollar moved higher against the basket of majors in mid-European trading, after hitting fresh correction low earlier in the day, turning focus towards release of US Housing sector data, due later today.
The dollar index bounced to session high at 101.19, after dipping to one-week low at 100.70 in early Europe.
Against Japanese yen, the greenback was so far unable to sustain attempts above 111.00 barrier, remaining in choppy near-term mode, under fresh high at 111.34.
Sterling pulled back to 1.2400 zone and erased over 50% of Monday’s strong rally that peaked at 1.2510, failing to sustain gains and unaffected by better-than-expected UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data that came at 4.3 billion pounds in October, beating forecast at 5.9 billion, with September’s numbers being revised downward to 9.2 billion from initial 10.1 billion release.
The Euro remains within narrow range after failing to break above near-term congestion tops at 1.0650 zone and downside being protected at 1.0600 zone.
Canadian dollar ticked higher on retail sales data that rose in line with expectations at 0.6% in September and above previous month’s 0.1% gain that was revised from initial 0.1% decline.
Loonies’ gains were limited as Core retail sales were flat in September, falling below expected 0.5%.
Spot Gold eased of firmer dollar on Tuesday’s midday trading, falling to $1210, early US session low, after recovery attempts were capped at $1221. Gold was under pressure on recent strength of the dollar after US election and is sensitive to changes in US interest rates, eyeing the outcome of FOMC December’s monetary policy meeting, when markets widely expect Fed to act and hike rates that would send the yellow metal significantly lower.
Crude oil eased from session high at $49.18, the highest since 28 October, being supported by strong hopes of OPEC production cut that would ease persisting pressure on oil prices. Fresh rally cracked some important technical barriers at $48.67/83, but clear break higher is needed to signal further upside extension. Along with positive fundamentals, technical studies are also bullishly aligned and support near-term price action.
European stocks were mixed on Tuesday, with FTSE100 holding gains of 0.6%, DAX was down 0.29%; while CAC 40 was in red on Tuesday, holding gains after higher opening, but unable to extend higher.
Wall Street opened at record levels on Tuesday, as strong post-US elections sentiment continues and investors are buying on expectations to benefit from President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to cross 19000 barrier on Tuesday, after nearly two years climbing from 18000, posting a gain of almost 6%.
Triple-zero psychological levels tend to be highly focused on by both investors and the media, though they can lack importance from the point of view of technical analysis.
Still, the climb from 18000 when that level was first breached on December 23, 2014 took a total of 483 trading days, making that the seventh longest 1000 point advance in history,.
Following the journey culminated today, the eighth longest 1000 point run was when the Dow took 975 days to travel from 3000 to 4000 level, while the fastest sprint ever happened during the technology bubble in 1999 when index jumped from 10000 to 11000 in just 24 days.
The blue-chip index has risen roughly 5.6% since crossing 18000 points, but is up approximately 195% since the March 9, 2009 bear market low at 6,440., Market Analysis