Monday trading is expected to be thinner in the afternoon due to US and Canada market holiday.
The dollar returns to stronger footing against most of major currencies after being pressed by disappointing US jobs data on Friday.
Crude oil is the top winner of the session. US Crude surged to fresh four-month high at $51.08, after approx $1.5 pullback in late Friday / early Monday trading.
Wall Street rallied after opening, rising between 0.4 and 0.5%.

Foreign Exchange

EURUSD is back to red on Monday, down 0.46% for the session and back below daily cloud, where the price returned after Friday’s strong rally. Technicals remain negatively aligned and support fresh weakness. Key supports are at 1.1122 and 1.1108, already cracked on Friday, but daily close below will confirm bearish continuation. Upper pivots lay at 1.1214/20 and firm break higher is required to revive bulls.
GBPUSD was threading water on Monday and traded within narrow range, but outlook remains negative after Friday’s flash crash and subsequent recovery. Technical studies maintain firm bearish tone, as fears of hard Brexit rise, especially after last Friday’s sharp fall. Immediate support at 1.2365 is under pressure, with further easing to open Friday’s low at 1.2225 and next technical support at 1.2180 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1987/1.2475, last Friday’s recovery). Initial resistance lies at 1.2428, followed by 1.2475 pivot (Friday’s recovery rally top.
USDJPY Monday’s fresh rally retraced over 50% of pullback from 104.14 to 102.79, where hourly double-bottom was formed. The price is back above daily cloud, close above which will keep near-term focus at key barriers at 104.30/43. The notion is supported by bullish structure of studies of larger timeframes.
AUDUSD regains strength and moves away from dangerous territory that was hit on Friday. Fresh strength moves the price back above daily cloud, which is expected to offer support, once it is broken. The pair attempts to establish in fresh direction after last Friday’s wide-range trading ended in long-legged Doji candle that signaled strong indecision. Daily close above the cloud will be seen as initial bullish signal. On the downside, the first trigger lies at 0.758 (Kijun-sen) below which comes Friday’s low at 0.7551 and key support at 0.7530 (daily cloud base).

Commodities
US CRUDE OIL is the top performer on Monday, as fresh weakness that emerged from $49.14 (correction bottom, fully retraced $50.73/$49.14 pullback and surged above $51.00 barrier in extension higher. Extended wave C is looking for its 200% Fibonacci expansion at $51.38 and former top at $51.65. The oil gained around 4.5% until now.
GOLD – recovery from Friday’s low at $1241 did not show much of the upside action, as Monday’s attempts remain capped under Friday’s high at $1265. Broken 200SMA continues to offer good resistance at $1259, despite being repeatedly cracked. Overall structure remains bearish and sees risk of further downside, as bounce on weaker US jobs data that pressured the dollar, are seen short-lived. Gold is looking for signals about US rate hike, as positive expectations so far kept the yellow metal under strong pressure that resulted of nearly 6% loss during the past week.
Stocks
European stocks were lower on Friday, with FTSE 100 being down 0.6% from daily highs, after opening higher on pound’s fall.
German Dax slipped by 1.04% after Friday’s opening lower and maintain negative near-term tone.
French CAC-40 index slipped 0.96% after lower open on Friday and continues to move lower.
Wall Street was lower after opening and erased all gains on weaker dollar.
Dow Jones fell 0.74% from session post US data high at 18250.
S&P500 slipped 0.69% from 2161 peak.
NASDAQ100 is down 0.66% after fully erasing post US jobs data gains., Market Analysis