Market Outlook for 8th November 2016

Market Outlook for 8th November 2016

America is voting today. The US electorate is going to decide who will be the 45th US president
The 2016 US presidential election was one of the most unpredictable political events worldwide. Many opinion polls show a tight race between two candidates until the last day before election with record numbers of bettors pouring millions into online platforms in the hope of capturing a jackpot from a victory by Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

The final stage of the campaign brought up a number of unexpected twists that directly affected rating of both candidates and seriously impacted markets that move in highly volatile mode in last days ahead of election.

The first strong hit came just one week ahead of election, when FBI revealed its probe into Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton’s email, as she used private server while being secretary of state. This undermined Clinton’s position and melted the lead that she had against Trump, raising the uncertainty.

Markets reacted with strong fall of US dollar and stocks, as investors tended to see Clinton in the White House to maintain status quo in foreign and internal politics, as well as economy and investment. The last week was overshadowed by increased fears of potential win of Donald Trump and kept markets in strong risk-off mode.

The latest twist came in the last days of campaign when FBI cleared Clinton after probe into her emails showed no irregularities. News provided relief to the markets that turned the risk appetite on and pushed the greenback off fresh lows.
On the Election Day, the US dollar was steady against major currencies in Asia and stayed above fresh lows posted after Monday’s turbulent start of the week when the greenback gapped higher against its major counterparts.

The dollar moved lower at the beginning of European session, with nervous trading expected ahead of preliminary results of the election.
The dollar index stood at 97.65 in late Asian hours, some 20 pips below Monday’s recovery high at 97.87 and holding between pivots at 97.97 and 97.37.

The Euro is holding just above Monday’s low at 1.1026 on Tuesday, with bearishly aligned technical studies, keeping the single currency under pressure, as markets are awaiting outcome of the US election.

British pound has managed to stabilize after Monday’s fall and form near-term base at 1.2380 zone, with negative technicals and results of US election expected to be the main driver.

The dollar kept firm near-term tone against Japanese yen in early Tuesday’s trading, maintaining Monday’s bounce that peaked at 104.61. Japan’s Finance Minister said on Tuesday that Japan would need to respond if results of US election push yen significantly higher. Such scenario could be expected if Trump wins, as markets would likely seek for safe-haven.
Conversely, dollar is likely to rally in case of Clinton’s win.

Gold held steady in early trading of Tuesday, holding above fresh low, at $1277, posted on Monday’s sharp fall. The yellow metal inched higher in Asia but remains negatively aligned, as most investors are betting on Clinton’s win that would boost dollar and put pressure on safe-haven gold.

Asian stocks were higher on Tuesday as world markets are waiting for the outcome of one of the most contentious U.S. presidential elections in history, with most investors cautiously optimistic of a win by Democrat Hillary Clinton.

European markets started Tuesday’s trading little changed, but moved higher in early hours of the European session.
FTSE100 was up 0.16%; DAX gained 0.22%, while CAC40 was up 0.31% after Tuesday’s opening.

All eyes are turned towards America and waiting for results of the US election. The latest polls showed slight lead of Hillary Clinton by 3 points, at the last day of campaign.
The highly-anticipated U.S. Presidential Election and Congressional Elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives will also be held today.

The first exit polls, which are a projection, are expected to come out on Tuesday night at around 00:00 GMT. Results will be declared state by state.
If the outcome is clear, the television networks are expected to make their official call at 04:00 GMT Wednesday., Market Analysis