Market Outlook for 3rd November 2016

Market Outlook for 3rd November 2016

The US dollar remains under pressure on Thursday, as recent weakness extended after US private employment numbers fell below the forecast, signalling that key release, US Non-Farm payrolls may also disappoint on Friday.
As expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in its last policy decision before the Nov. 8 vote on Wednesday and signalled it could hike rates in December as the economy gathers momentum and inflation picks up.

Uncertainty ahead of US elections keeps the dollar on shaky ground, as latest polls show Clinton’s lead is narrowing, with 47% support against 45.3% for Trump. Also, some polls already talk of Trump taking the leading position.

The dollar index, which tracks performance of US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is in red for the fifth consecutive day, was down around 0.3% in early Thursday and is approaching strong technical support at 97.00, on steady descend from recent fresh multi-month high at 99.08.

The Euro is consolidating under fresh thee-week high against the dollar at 1.1126, after being up around 1.5% in Asia.
British pound is also well supported and posted marginally higher high against the dollar at 1.2363 on Thursday, on renewed attempt above key near-term resistance at 1.2330, with technical barrier at 1.2400 being in focus. The pair was up 0.31% in Asian session.
The dollar is in steep descend against yen, trading in red for the third day and being down 0.45% in overnight session on Thursday. The pair hit new one-month low at 102.53, after taking important technical supports, showing scope for further easing.

Antipodean currencies moved higher against US dollar Thursday, after the release of upbeat Australian trade data and as uncertainty over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election continued to weigh on the greenback.

Australian Trade deficit narrowed to A$1.23 billion in September from A$ 1.89 deficit in August and well below forecast at A$1.7 billion.
Australian dollar moved higher and shows fresh signals of bullish resumption, after Wednesday’s trading ended nearly flat, following the pair’s movements within a wide range that gave strong signal of indecision.

New Zealand Dollar remains well supported against its US counterpart in the near term and holding in strong bullish mode for the third straight day. Kiwi dollar was up 0.23% in early Thursday, adding to strong rally in past two days.

Spot Gold remains firm and trading under fresh one-month high at $1307, posted on Wednesday, holding around $1300 handle in early European hours. The yellow metal remains supported on uncertainty ahead of U.S. election and signals that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates in December. Fresh extension higher cracked important barriers at $1300/04, with close above them to confirm strong bullish stance.

Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, moving above fresh five-week low, posted a day earlier. The oil slumped on Wednesday to the lowest levels since late September after data showed US Crude Stocks soared 14.4 million barrels, the largest weekly oil stocks build since the U.S. Energy Information Administration started keeping records in 1982.

US Crude oil probed below $45.00 handle on Wednesday, eyeing strong technical support s at $44.30/20 zone, while Brent oil touched strong support at $46.35, on Wednesday’s bearish acceleration.
European stocks were steady to higher on Thursday, as investors eyed the Bank of England’s policy statement due later in the trading session and as they remained cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election next week.
FTSE 100 Index was up 0.10% in early Thursday’s trading; DAX was down 0.16%, while CAC40 gained 0.27%.
Highlights of the day

Full calendar on Thursday promises a lot of action again, with focus on BOE’s monetary policy report in Europe and US weekly jobless claims and Non-Manufacturing PMI data in the US session.
Asia
Australian trade gap narrowed more than expected in September, sending Aussie dollar higher.
China’s Caixin Services PMI slightly missed the forecast in October, coming at 52.4 vs 52.5
consensus, but above September’s release at 52.0.

Europe
Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold on Thursday. Bank rates are to stay at historic low at 0.25%, with no change seen to QE program. Release is due at 12:00 GMT.
BoE’s Governor Mark Carney is due to hold news conference at 12:30 GMT.

America
US weekly jobless claims are forecasted at 257K, slightly below last week’s 258K result and due at 12:30 GMT.
US Services Sector is expected to slow in October, according to the forecast for ISM PMI data at 56.0 vs 57.1 in September.
Data is due at 14:00 GMT.

Important levels
GOLD
Spot gold slipped below $1300 after posting fresh high at $1307 on Wednesday and hitting high at $1306 in Asia on Thursday. Strong technical resistance at $1304 has been cracked and daily close above the latter is needed to confirm bullish resumption towards next targets at $1312 and $1319.
Immediate support lies at $1291, ahead of more significant $1284 support, which is seen containing stronger dips.
WTI Crude oil
Oil price is consolidating above fresh low at $44.96, posted on Wednesday. Overall sentiment remains firmly bearish and sees extension towards next strong supports at $44.30/20, loss of which may trigger extension towards key short-term supports at $43.05.
Initial resistance lies at $45.88, ahead of $46.57 and $47.45., Market Analysis