The US dollar was higher in early Monday’s trading, maintaining firm tone against the basket of major currencies and staying on track for strong bullish monthly close. The greenback remains off recent highs, with gains being temporarily limited, as investors’ initial hopes that Hilary Clinton would win presidential elections were eroded after the FBI’s probe into Clinton’s private email.
The scandal broke on Friday after the FBI revealed its probe of newly found emails related to Clinton’s use of private server when she was the Secretary of State.

The news that rocked the Democratic candidate’s campaign just days ahead of presidential elections on Nov 8, pushed the dollar lower on Friday, however, the move so far didn’t affect significantly the greenback which remains on strong bullish path and is up 3.2% in October.
Investors have tended to see Clinton as the candidate of the status quo, while there is greater uncertainty over what a victory Trump might mean for U.S. foreign policy, international trade deals and the domestic economy.
Markets saw the issue handing an advantage to Republican rival Donald Trump, who has been trailing Clinton in polls but has shown some signs of slight improvement in recent days.
Before news of the FBI’s fresh probe emerged on Friday, the dollar had gained on stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP growth, which reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
The Fed is widely expected to keep its policy on hold at its policy meeting ending on Wednesday. Money markets were still pricing in about a 70% chance of a rate hike in December.
The Euro was down 0.24% in early Monday’s trading, erasing part of Friday’s rally that peaked at 1.0990.
Sterling is off Monday’s marginally higher high at 1.2212, following bounce from Friday’s low at 1.2112, after the dollar was hit by news, but holds in directionless near-term mode against the dollar.
Dollar/yen is regaining ground on Monday and returned to 105.00 zone, after Friday’s sharp fall from fresh three-month high at 105.51, to the session low at 104.45. The pair remains in strong bullish path, despite losing 0.50% on Friday and on track for strong monthly bullish close.
Gold prices held near last Friday’s four-week high during early European hours on Monday, as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week, while monitoring fresh political uncertainty in the U.S.
The yellow metal climbed to $1284, the highest level since 04 Oct, after the FBI announced investigation against Clinton, fuelling worries about a surprise election outcome.
Crude Oil prices remain under pressure and extended declines on Monday after non-OPEC producers made no specific commitment to join the OPEC in limiting oil output levels to prop up prices, suggesting they wanted the oil producing group to solve its differences first.
Officials and experts from OPEC countries and non-OPEC nations including Azerbaijan, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Oman and Russia met for consultations in Vienna on Saturday and only agreed to meet again in November before a scheduled regular OPEC meeting on Nov. 30, they said in a statement.
WTI oil hit fresh four-week low at $ 48.17 on Monday, while Brent oil dipped to $49.30, the lowest level since 29 Sep.
Asian stocks got off to a shaky start on Monday as investors were rattled by news that the FBI is planning to review more emails related to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s private server, just a week before the election.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a six-week low on Monday, before recovering up 0.2%. The index is set to end the month down 1.6%.
Japan’s Nikkei225, which touched a six-month high on Friday, slipped 0.4% on Monday, but remains on track for monthly gains of 5.5%.
China’s Shanghai Composite index fell 0.4% on Monday, paring gains this month to 2.9%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.3% after sliding to a two-month low on Monday, remaining on track for a 1.1% loss in October.

Highlights of the day

Europe
German Retail Sales disappointed on unexpected fall by 1.4% in September vs forecasted 0.2% growth and 0.4% fall in August.
Eurozone’s inflation data are in focus on Monday. Forecast shows inflation ticking to 0.5% in October, compared to 0.4% in September.
EU’s inflation data may not significantly change investors’ perception on the euro zone economy, however, stronger readings could fuel talk that the European Central Bank may scale back its bond buying program next year.

Important levels
GOLD
Gold peaked at $1284 on Friday, driven by rising political uncertainty in the US ahead of presidential elections. The price is holding under fresh high on Monday, but so far stays capped under important $1280 level that was cracked on Friday’s rally. Close above here and lift above fresh high at $1284, would open next target at $1292.
Strong supports lay at $1273/20, 200SMA / daily Tenkan-sen line, which underpin the action.
USDJPY
The pair regained traction after Friday’s pullback from fresh high at 105.51. Friday’s close in red dented bulls that came ticks ahead of 105.60 target, however, overall structure remains firmly bullish, as the pair is on track for bullish weekly / monthly close.
Lift above 105.60 would open 106.00 initially, with fresh gains expected to focus falling 200SMA, currently at 107.17.
Initial support lies at 104.68, followed by 104.45 pivot, followed by 104.00 support zone.

 , Market Analysis