Market Outlook for 2nd December 2016

Market Outlook for 2nd December 2016

The dollar was firmer against the most of major currencies in early Europe, on bounce from overnight low, close to the lowest level of pullback from fresh 14-year high.
The greenback remains at the back foot against yen in the near-term, following pullback from fresh 9 ½ month high, posted on Wednesday.

The dollar seems to be running into profit-taking action, following massive rally in November after US elections and is on track for its first week in red in four weeks. However, overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by wide expectations for Fed rate hike in December that will raise premium for holding dollars.
Investors are eyeing today’s US jobs report for November that may set the market tone in coming days. Forecast for November shows 175,000 new jobs added in November, above October’s 161,000, which marks solid number that would cement Fed’s decision to raise interest rates on its December’s meeting.

Also, Italy’s referendum, due on Sunday, is in focus, as markets are fearing ‘no’ vote outcome that could shake global markets.
However, the dollar is holding within narrow ranges against majors, awaiting US Non-Farm Payrolls data from the US that is expected to spark stronger action in the markets.

Spot gold extended bounce from fresh multi-month low at $1160 on Friday, boosted by firmer dollar, but so far seeing limited upside action, as overall outlook remains firmly bearish. The yellow metal lost its safe-haven appeal after risk appetite in the markets rose on Trump’s victory on US elections and on hopes for US rate hike that would the metal under increased pressure.

Crude oil was the top winner of the past week, rallying nearly 14% for the week, after OPEC confirmed decision of oil production cut in its meeting, earlier this week.
The decision boosted bullish sentiment and brought relief to the oil price that is now looking for further upside acceleration.

Asian shares joined Wall Street and Europe in giving up some of recent gains on Friday, retreating on the possibility of faster-than-expected U.S. interest rate increases that boosted 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to an 18-month high overnight.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.9%, and was on track to end the week 0.3% lower.

Japan’s Nikkei eased from an 11-month high, posted on Thursday, closed down 0.5% on Friday, but still on track for weekly gain.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 0.7% on Friday, but on track for weekly close in red.

European stocks were also in negative mode on Friday. Britain’s FTSE100 index slipped 0.49% and on track for weekly close in red.

DAX was down 0.43 in early Friday’s trading, adding to strong losses of the previous day and bearish end of the week.

French CAC40 index fell 0.84% on Friday and being down 2.2% for the week so far.

Highlights of the day

Europe
UK’s Construction PMI surprised in November on 52.8 release, hitting eight-month high, beating the forecast at 52.2 and coming above October’s 52.6 release. Strong positive impact was offset by construction industry costs that rose at the fastest pace since 2011, fuelled by sterling’s slump after the June vote to exit the European Union.

America
The US Labor Department is scheduled to release data on non-farm payrolls report at 13:30GMT in what will be Friday’s main market event.
Expectations are for the report to confirm the continued strength of the U.S. labor market.
The consensus forecast is that Friday’s report will show the economy created 175,000 jobs in November, up from 161,000 in October.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9% and average earnings are expected to increase by 0.2%., Market Analysis