Market Outlook for 28th September 2016

Market Outlook for 28th September 2016

The dollar moved higher against yen in Asia, holding above one-month lows at 100.00 zone and bounced to session high at 100.70. The greenback also holds firm tone against the Euro, as fresh weakness below yesterday’s low at 1.1189 signals renewed concerns about the health of the European financial system.
Share prices of Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest lender, fell to a record low, on rising concerns about demand from US Department of Justice, worth $14 billion.

On the other side, Sterling remains constructive in the near-term, in attempts to sustain break above 1.3000 handle, after past two days’ recovery from 1.2913, six weeks low. However, fresh strength of British pound is seen short-lived, as overall picture remains negative and rising fears about ‘hard Brexit’ that would spark an exodus of banks from London, keeps Sterling under pressure.

Antipodean currencies show mixed performance on Wednesday. Australian dollar remains firm against its US counterpart, trading just under fresh recovery high at 0.7693, while Kiwi dollar fell around 0.3% on Wednesday, on extension of pullback from Tuesday’s high at 0.7328.
New Zealand dollar remains supported by relatively high yields and remains in longer-term uptrend against US dollar that commenced from September 2015 low at 0.6234.
Firmer dollar keeps Gold price under pressure for the second day. The yellow metal extends weakness from $1343 zone, where strong technical resistance capped last week’s strong recovery. Fresh bearish extension on Wednesday eyes support at $1320, after strong fall of nearly 1% on Tuesday, generated bearish signal. Demand for safe-haven gold has fallen on traders’ rising bets on presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, seeing bets on Clinton safer than bets on Trump.
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, holding above Tuesday’s low, but remains at the back foot. WTI oil bounced to $45.05 high in Asia, after Tuesday’s weakness bottomed at $44.18.
Worries about the outcome of today’s OPEC and non-OPEC members meeting in Algiers would further pressure oil price, as worries among traders rise over a lack of agreement between oil producers about curbing the output.
Asian shares showed mixed performance on Wednesday, as Nikkei 225 fell by 1.45%, while Shaghai Index was up 0.11% and Singapore index was down 0.7% in Asia.

Highlights of the day
Europe

German consumer morale fell slightly in October, but remains at one of the highest levels in more than a decade, release on Wednesday showed, suggesting that private consumption is likely to compensate for weakening exports.
The consumer sentiment indicator, published by the GfK institute and based on a survey of around 2,000 Germans, fell to 10.0 going into October, against unchanged 10.2 forecast.

America

The most important data release today will be the US preliminary durable goods order for August. We have not seen shipments of core capital goods bottoming out yet, suggesting that actual investments are still weak. Still, it was encouraging that new orders rose in July. Expectations for business investments were also weak in Q3 2016.
Speeches of Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi are in focus on Wednesday, however, no major news are expected from both central banks’ heads.
Janet Yellen is due to testify at 14:00 GMT, while Mario Draghi’s speech is due half an hour later, at 14:30 GMT.

Important levels
EURUSD
The single currency remains under pressure and heads lower for the second day. Fresh weakness on Wednesday posted new low at 1.1180, after break below strong 1.1200 support. Negative near-term sentiment maintains pressure, with next targets at 1.1167 and 1.1158, being in focus, ahead of key 1.1122 support.
Initial barriers lay at 1.1200/18, followed by 1.1230 and upside triggers at 1.1258/80.

GBPUSD
Sterling extended recovery off 1.2913 lows in past two days and probed above important 1.3000 barrier. Tuesday’s close above 1.3000 generated positive signal of extended consolidation above 1.2913 lows. Limited upside action is expected, as overall structure is negative and strong resistances that lay at 1.3060/80 zone are expected to cap extended upticks.
Initial support lies at 1.2980, ahead of 1.2958 and 1.2935, on the way to key near-term supports at 1.2913.
GOLD
Strong bearish acceleration on Tuesday came after repeated upside rejection at strong $1343 resistance. Extension of bearish acceleration on Wednesday eyes supports at $1320 and $1315, ahead of key near-term support at $1312.
Initial resistance lies at $1327, followed by $1332 and $1337., Market Analysis