Market Outlook for 27th October 2016

Market Outlook for 27th October 2016

The US dollar remains steady on Thursday and holding near fresh highs against the basket of major currencies, supported by rises in US bond yields and expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates.

The greenback accelerated higher against Japanese yen after finding solid support at 104.00 zone on Wednesday and focusing again Tuesday’s fresh three-month high at 104.86. As the Bank of Japan is seen likely to keep its monetary policy steady for a while and to stick to its pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around 0%, U.S. bond yields are expected to be the main driver for dollar/yen.
The dollar index stood at 98.70 zone in late Asian trading on Thursday, continuing to move within consolidation range under new nine-month high at 99.08, with near-term focus shifted higher.
The Euro was at the back foot against the dollar in early Thursday’s trading, following recovery rejection at 1.0945 on Wednesday, trading around 1.0900 handle ahead of European opening.
Sterling eased from fresh recovery highs at 1.2247 on Thursday, down 0.3% in Asia, but maintains firm tone on past two day’s rally, as price is so far holding above 1.2200 handle. Fading expectations for a rate cut by the BoE next week have lent support to the pound, which recovered from Tuesday’s fresh low at 1.2081 after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Tuesday that the central bank could not ignore the pound’s fairly substantial recent drop. The market’s focus is on comments from UK policymakers, to gauge their stance toward Britain’s renegotiation of its relationship with the European Union, as well as any comments from BoE officials.
Australian dollar lost traction and trades in red on Thursday, after strong rally on Wednesday stalled at 0.7708 and subsequent pullback made the pair to close nearly flat. Fresh easing on Thursday is putting key near-term support at 0.7585 under pressure.
Gold prices showed no significant changes in Asia on Thursday, holding mixed sentiment as investors await further clarity the U.S. presidential election and a widely expected rate hike by the Fed in December.
Spot Gold is trading above Asian lows at $1265 zone, ahead of strong near-term support at $1260, following double upside rejection at $1276. Despite recent gains that improved near-term technicals, the outlook for gold remains cloudy as a recent series of positive U.S. economic data, combined with hawkish remarks from key Fed officials, heightened expectations for an interest rate hike before the end of the year.
Oil remains at the back foot on Thursday. US Crude oil is pressuring again cracked important support at $49.14 and Wednesday’s low at $48.87, after psychological $50.00 barrier capped upside attempts. Oil prices came under pressure in the near term on renewed doubts over OPEC’s ability to organize a coordinated production cut.
Asian stocks extended losses on Thursday after disappointing earnings from technology giant Apple dragged on Wall Street, while the dollar remained under this week’s fresh nearly nine-month high. Adding to the already subdued mood, data from China showed profit growth in industrial firms slowed last month from the previous month’s rapid pace, as several sectors showed weak activity, suggesting the world’s second-biggest economy remains underpowered.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.9% in Asia; Hong Kong Hang Seng fell 1.2%; China index was down 1.6%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.5$ on Thursday.
Besides Apple results that soured overall sentiment of Wall Street, results and forecasts from some other major U.S. companies also weighed on U.S. markets overnight. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were lower, though good results from Boeing lifted the Dow Jones industrial average.
European shares continued negative sentiment from Asia and opened lower on Thursday, in attempts to extend strong fall on Wednesday, when FTSE100 fell by 1.21%; DAX was down 0.73% and CAC40 was 0.22% lower for the day.
Highlights of the day

Europe
Release of UK’s GDP data are in focus of European session today. GDP numbers for Q3 are expected to show that Britain escaped a severe economic slowdown in the three months after the Brexit referendum shock and further diminish the chance of a fresh interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week.
Analysts are forecasting growth of 0.3% in Q3, slower than expansion in April-June by 0.7%, but better than the most recent forecast by the BoE.
Data is due at 8:30 GMT.
America
Across the Atlantic focus goes at US weekly jobless claims and Durable goods orders, both due at 12:30 GMT.
Jobless claims are expected to show marginal change from last week’s release at 260K, as forecast for today lies at 261K.
Durable Goods Orders m/m are expected to stay unchanged in Sep at 0.1%, however, Core durables are forecasted to improve in Sep, according to the forecast at 0.2%, compared to -0.2% in Aug.

Important levels
EURUSD
The Euro found footstep at 1.0900 zone after yesterday’s recovery rejection at 1.0945, where the first strong resistance lies. While the price stays below 1.0945, risk of fresh weakness will remain in play. Firm break below 1.0900 handle would re-attract key near-term support at 1.0849 and s/t target at 1.0820. Alternatively, lift above 1.0945 would signal extended correction and expose next barriers at 1.1000/13.
AUDUSD
The pair erased the biggest part of Wednesday’s rally on pullback from fresh high at 0.7708 that accelerated further down today, pressuring 0.7600 (round figure) and key 0.7585 higher base. Near-term bulls stalled on approach to key barriers at 0.7732/58, with loss of 0.7585 pivot, expected to further weaken near-term structure.
Initial resistance lies at 0.7633, ahead of 0.7655 pivot, break above which is needed to improve near-term structure.

GOLD
Gold is at the back foot on Thursday, following double rejection at $1274 high, but is so far holding above strong supports at $1263/60, which mark the lower boundary of n/t congestion. However, lift above 200SMA at $1271 is needed to improve n/t outlook and re-focus $1276 pivot for possible bullish extension towards $1280. Otherwise, the downside is expected to remain vulnerable while the price stays below 200SMA. Violation of $1260 trigger would revive n/t bears., Market Analysis