The Euro showed no significant reaction on Thursday’s ECB policy meeting, when European central bank, as widely expected, held off any immediate easing of monetary policy. ECB’s chief Mario Draghi repeated already known words about the expectations of Eurozone’s economy and inflation picking up pace towards the end of the year, with recovery expected to proceed in moderate pace.
The single currency moved within 80-pips span on Thursday and being flat in early Friday’s trading, still holding above psychological 1.1000 support which so far resisted two attempts lower.

Japanese yen was among top winners of Thursday, regaining ground against the US dollar, after BOJ’s Governor Kuroda played down speculation about radical economic stimulus, known as ‘helicopter money’.
The dollar reversed quickly against yen, after comments were released, pulling back some 200 pips off fresh six-week high at 107.47. Early Friday’s trading shows consolidation of Thursday’s sharp fall, with recovery attempts being for now capped above 106 handle.
However, expectations that the BOJ will adopt easing steps at its policy meeting next week remain strong and are so far limiting yen’s gains.
Antipodean currencies remain under pressure, with Aussie dollar set for the first negative weekly close in eight weeks, while New Zealand dollar dipped to fresh six-week low. Kiwi’s recent weakness has accelerated after RBNZ gave strong signals of policy easing at its next meeting on August 11.

Spot Gold remains at the back foot and set for the second week in red, following broader correction off $1375 high that hit new low at $1310 yesterday. Gold recovered some losses on Thursday’s bounce to $1333, with fresh pressure coming on profit-taking action in early Friday’s trading.

Highlights of the day

Europe
Series of PMI data from the Eurozone countries and UK are the highlight of the European session. French and German releases showed better-than-expected figures on both, Manufacturing and services PMI.
Focus is on UK’s data, which are expected to assess the immediate impact of Brexit on the economy. Forecasts for July are below June’s releases for both components, with Manufacturing PMI at 47.8/52.1 and Services PMI at 48.9/52.3.

America
Canadian retail sales and inflation data are the highlights of the American session. Retail sales are forecasted at 0.0% in May, compared to 0.9% in April, while core retail sales show forecast at 0.3%, down from April’s rise by 1.3%.
Inflation is expected to tick lower to 1.4% in June, compared to 1.5% in May, while core CPI is forecasted at 2.0% in June, down from May’s 2.1%.

Important levels

NZDUSD
The pair enters the eight straight day of losses, with fresh low at 0.6950 being hit on Thursday, after breaking below 50% of 0.6673/0.7323 upleg. Daily cloud top offered temporary support for now, however, bearish technical studies suggest further easing towards next targets at 0.6920/00 (Fibonacci 61.8% / daily cloud base).
The pair is on track for the second strong bearish weekly close and also penetrated weekly Ichimoku cloud top that gives strong bearish signal.
Session highs at 0.7014 offer immediate resistance, ahead of 0.7065/77 (20 July high / 06 July low) and 0.7126 (daily 10/20SMA bear-cross).

USDJPY
The pair consolidates Thursday’s fall that dipped to 105.40 low, after recovery rally of past eight days stalled at 107.47, capped by descending daily cloud. Near-term technicals weakened and see existing risk of further easing, however, overall structure remains firmly bullish and suggests limited technical pullback, before bulls resume.
Thursday’s low now acts as initial support at 105.40, followed by rising daily Tenkan-sen line at 104.95 and strong 104.61 support (Fibonacci 61.8% of 99.97/107.47 ascend.
Initial resistance lies at 106.24 (session high), ahead of daily cloud base at 106.60, also Fibonacci 61.8% of pullback from 107.47 which marks the upper trigger.
US CRUDE OIL
Oil price is under renewed pressure and probes below former low and strong support at $44.41, being on track for bearish weekly close. Fresh downside acceleration, driven by renewed fears of global oversupply, would extend towards next targets at $43.44/00, with further easing to look for strong supports at $41.50/00.
Immediate resistance lies at $44.87 (session high); followed by $45.50 (falling 10SMA) and $46.10 (peaks of past two days.
Technical studies remain firmly bearish., Market Analysis