Market Outlook for 19th October 2016
Economic data from China were the highlight of Asian session. There was no surprise this time as Chinese Q3 GDP came along with expectations at 6.7%, unchanged from Q2, while Retail Sales ticked higher in September, coming at 10.7% vs 10.6% forecast. Only Industrial production was below expectations at 6.1% in September, against forecast at 6.4% and 6.3% in August.
Firm numbers signal that risk of sharp deterioration of the economy is limited and that Chinese authorities still have solid control over the economy.
The dollar remained at the back foot against most of majors on Wednesday and holding below seven-month high, after US CPI data on Tuesday showed a moderation in inflation that prompted markets to trim bets on Federal Reserve rate hike, which is widely expected in December.
The dollar index is holding under 98.00 resistance in early Wednesday’s trading, but managed to regain ground after pullback on bounce from 97.67, low of corrective pullback from fresh seven-month high at 98.14.
Australian dollar was higher and pared some of its recent losses against the US dollar, on positive Chinese data, however, the pair is still holding within near-term consolidation range and keeping upside in focus, as fresh rally approached key near-term barrier at 0.7708.
British pound remains on the front foot against greenback and trading just under key near-term resistance at 1.2323, which was retested on Tuesday, after upbeat UK CPI numbers, signalled moderation in underlying inflation and UK government lawyer said that the parliament would likely have to ratify any deal to take Britain out of the EU.
On the other side, the dollar firmed against Euro on Wednesday, after repeated failure to break above psychological 1.1000 barrier.
The single currency is weighed by expectations on policy decisions from European Central Bank, which is meeting on Thursday.
The ECB is widely expected to keep its policy unchanged with any decisions on the future of its asset purchase scheme expected to be postponed until December.
Asian stocks were up on Wednesday for a second consecutive session after series of data from China confirmed the economy had stabilized on the back of government spending and a hot housing market, even if worries about debt continue to mount.
MSCI Index was up 0.4% on Wednesday, adding on Tuesday’s 1.4% jump. Shanghai shares were up 0.2%, Australian shares gained 0.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.1% on Wednesday.
European shares did not follow positive sentiment from Asia and started trading on Wednesday in red.
UK’s FTSE 100 index is down 0.17% from opening price, German DAX lost 0.18%, while French CAC-40 index was down 0.22% in Early Wednesday’s trading.
Crude oil was among the top gainers on Tuesday, rising around 1%, lifted by report from API (American Petroleum Institute) that showed fall in US crude stockpiles by 3.8 million barrels in the week to Oct 14, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to release official crude and fuel storage data later on Wednesday.
US Crude oil bounced back above $50 per barrel on fresh bullish sentiment.
Highlights of the day
Europe
The calendar for Wednesday is full, with focus on UK jobs data in European session.
UK jobless claims for September are expected to rise to 3K from 2.4K in August, with releases at / above consensus, expected to put the pound under increased pressure.
UK’s Unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9% in August, along with Average Earnings Index, which is forecasted at 2.3% in August.
Data is due at 08:30 GMT.
America
US housing data are due at 12:30 GMT, with Building Permits forecasted to rise by 0.9% in September from Augusts’ draw of 1.4%. US housing starts are expected to jump 2.5% in September, after falling by 5.8% in August.
Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its rate policy unchanged on today’s meeting and keep interest rates at 0.50%.
Results from BOC policy meeting will be released at 14:00 GMT.
US EIA Crude oil inventories are forecasted for build of 2.7 million barrels, after previous week’s release surprised with 4.9 million barrels build.
Data is due at 14:30 GMT.
Important levels
GBPUSD
Cable maintains positive tone, boosted by strong UK inflation data on Tuesday, with near-term price action corrective pullback from key n/t barrier at 1.2323, which was retested on bullish acceleration yesterday. Initial support at 1.2250, so far contained correction, with next support levels at 1.2218 and 1.2200.
Firm break above 1.2323 could extend next strong resistance at 1.2400.
EURUSD
The Euro is at the back foot on Wednesday, following repeated failure at 1.1000 barrier. Near-term action is holding within 1.0968/1.1000 congestion, with overall negative bias favouring final attack at key 1.0950 support.
Initial resistance lies at 1.1000, followed by pivots at 1.1060 and 1.1082.
WTI Crude oil
Oil price rallied by 1% on Tuesday and fresh strength is pressuring $51.00 barrier, after double-bottom was left at $49.46/36 zone. Sustained break above $51.00/12 barriers will open fresh recovery high of 10 Oct at $51.58.
Initial support lies at $50.68, ahead of $50.36 and $50.00., Market Analysis