Market Outlook for 16th November 2016

Market Outlook for 16th November 2016

The US dollar maintained strong bullish tone and held near fresh highs on Thursday, after upbeat US data on Wednesday further boosted the sentiment. US retail sales rose 0.8% in October, beating forecast at 0.6% and Empire State manufacturing index jumped to 1.50 in November, after falling 6.8 previous month.

The Euro hit fresh yearly low on probe below 1.0700 handle, being down 0.2% in Asia and keeping negative near-term outlook.
The dollar index establishes above 100.00 handle and hit fresh nearly one-year high at 100.33 overnight. The index is looking for attack at strong barriers at 100.38/53, for resumption of broader uptrend, as dollar is boosted by optimism over Donald Trump presidency.

The greenback remains well supported against Japanese yen, trading in steep ascend post US elections and posting series of fresh highs. The pair was up 0.20% in Asia, trading above 109.00 mark, holding at levels last traded in June and eyeing psychological 110.00 barrier for test.
Australian dollar was in red in early Wednesday’s trading, being down 0.24% in Asia, but still holding above strong near-term support at 0.7510, in consolidation that extends into third day.

Kiwi dollar was down 0.11% overnight, remaining in red for the sixth consecutive day, but was so unable to clear strong support at 0.7068 (14 Nov low), suggesting extended consolidation before final push towards key targets at 0.7033/00.

Sterling managed to stabilize and edged higher on Wednesday, after being hit by weaker-than-expected UK inflation data. The pound bounced and hit high at 1.2500 in Asia, after dipping below 1.2400 handle after downbeat CPI data on Tuesday. Cable was up 0.14% in Asia on Wednesday, after losing 0.26% on Tuesday. Investor’s focus is turning back towards Britain’s departure from the EU and associated political and economic risks.

Spot Gold held previous day’s gains on Wednesday, holding above fresh low at $1211, but lacked momentum for stronger action higher, remaining for now within approx $20 range, established in past few sessions. Gold price ended Asian session flat, with focus on dollar’s performance and signals from Federal Reserve about possible rate hike in December.

Gold was in steep descend during past few days, pressured by strengthening dollar and looking for attack at strong support at $1200 zone.

Crude oil price rose to a two-week high in late Asian trading on Wednesday, adding to the prior session’s strong gains as market players awaited release of US weekly crude stocks, due later today, with sentiment being boosted by renewed optimism over an output cut by major global oil producers.

US crude oil peaked at $46.16 on Wednesday, hitting strong technical resistance and showing scope for further upside after strong rally on Tuesday, when WTI oil price gained 4.6%.

Asian shares were steady on Wednesday, as Dow Jones hit record high overnight. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific outside Japan rose 0.6% on Wednesday; Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.2% while Australian stocks were marginally higher.

European stocks were in red in early Wednesday’s trading, as markets took a breather from the recent post-U.S. election rally. FTSE 100 was down 0.64%; DAX slipped 0.53%, while CAC40 was down 0.24%.
Highlights of the day

Europe
UK Jobless claims are seen negative in October, according to 2.0K forecast vs 0.7K in September.
Sep UK Unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.9%.

America

US weekly crude stocks are forecasted for 0.4 million barrels build compared to 2.4 million barrels build last week. Data is due at 15:30 GMT.
Important levels
EURUSD
The Euro is positive in early Tuesday’s trading, after posting fresh 2016 low on Monday. The bounce is seen as correction and facing solid resistance at 1.0840, with extended upticks to look for next barrier at 1.0930.
On the downside, initial support lies at 1.0745; followed by 1.0707, below which there are no serious obstacles on the way towards key 1.0520 support.
USDJPY
The pair consolidates under fresh high at 108.52, with studies in full bullish mode and so far ignoring overbought conditions. Scope is seen for extension towards psychological 110.00 barrier in the near-term, with corrective dips having immediate support at 107.75, ahead of 107.00 zone and key 106.46 support (broken 200SMA)., Market Analysis