Market Outlook for 14th November 2016

Market Outlook for 14th November 2016

The dollar started week in strong bullish mode, opening with gap higher against the Euro and British pound and surging against yen, boosted by hopes that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will bolster economic growth and inflation. Also, expectations for higher U.S. interest rates also remained in play amid optimism that a pick-up in growth will allow the Federal Reserve to hike rates by the end of the year.
Euro opened with about 30-pips gap-lower against dollar on Monday and was down 0.30% in late Asian hours, hitting levels last seen in January.
Cable also opened lower and extended losses to 1.2500 zone in early Monday’s trading, paring last week’s gains that peaked at 1.2671.
The greenback surged above 107 barrier against Japanese yen and probes above former high at 107.47, posted in July. The pair was up 0.75% in Asian session.
The dollar index hit the highest levels since February in early Monday, surging to 99.66 high and gaining 0.55% for the session, after week opened with 13-pips gap-higher.
Antipodean currencies showed mixed performance in early hours of Monday. Australian dollar was little changed in Asia and remained within narrow range above fresh, marginally lower low at 0.7521. New Zealand dollar was sharply lower on Monday, losing nearly 1% for the session and extending sharp fall of past three days, when the Kiwi fell almost 4% against its US counterpart.
Fresh risk-on sentiment in the markets pushed safe haven instruments significantly lower. Japanese yen lost ground after US election, while another traditional safe-haven instrument gold, also came under strong pressure. The yellow metal was down 0.57% in Asia on Monday, extending post-US election bearish acceleration that marked loss of over 5% in the past week. Near-term sentiment for gold remains negative, as bearish technicals and fresh strong risk-appetite see risk of further weakening, as the price approaches strong technical support at $1200.
Crude oil steadied in early Monday’s trading and was little changed, holding just above fresh multi-month lows. Oil prices remain pressured by worries of global oversupply, as OPEC saw record output last month.
US Crude oil was up 0.65% in early Monday, after suffering losses of over 3% last week.
Brent oil was up 0.97% in Asia, after falling 2.7% last week.
Asian stocks were mixed on Monday, as mood in Asia was soured by growing risk of a trade war between US and China.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 1.1% and made its lowest close since mid-July on Friday.
Hong Kong Hang-Seng was up 0.23%, while Japan’s Nikkei225 was the top winner in Asia, gaining nearly 1.4% on weakening yen.
European stocks opened higher on Monday and advanced further in early trading hours. FTSE100 was up 0.47% at the time of writing, DAX advanced 0.19%, while CAC40 advanced 0.51%.

Asia
China’s industrial production missed the forecast at 6.2% in October, coming unchanged from
September at 6.1%.

Europe
Eurozone’s industrial production data are due at 10:00 GMT and are expected to fall in September, according to forecast at -0.1%, compared to 1.6% rise in August.
ECB’s President Mario Draghi is due to speak at 15:00 GMT.
Important levels
EURUSD
Remains under strong pressure and slid below 1.0800 handle on Monday’s fresh extension of larger post-US election fall. The pair broke below strong support at 1.0820 after gap-lower opening and is looking for next targets at 1.0700 zone, after hitting fresh nearly 11-month lows. Sentiment remains bearish and boosted by strong bearish close last week.
Initial resistance lay at 1.0800/20, followed by session high / former low at 1.0840/50 zone.
USDJPY
Strong bullish acceleration took out barrier at 107.47, approaching immediate target at 108.00, followed by Fibonacci projection at 108.49, with extension to psychological 110.00 barrier not ruled out.
Broken barrier at 107.47 offers immediate support, followed by session low at 107.15 and key n/t support at 106.49 (200SMA).
GOLD
Spot Gold remains in steep descend after US election and extends sharp fall of last week on Monday. The price hit session low at $1215, on approach to strong support at $1200 (low of May), with break lower to open projections at $1181 and $1145.
Initial resistance lies at $1231 (session high), ahead of $1241 (former low)., Market Analysis