Market Outlook for 11th November 2016

Market Outlook for 11th November 2016

The dollar was slightly lower against most of majors on Friday, maintains strong bullish sentiment and remains close fresh highs after post US election turmoil.
Investors became more optimistic about the outlook of Trump’s presidency, as initial fears were replaced with much brighter outlook, especially on hopes that Trump’s program will be focusing on boosting spending and inflation.
Fresh positive sentiment also boosted bets about Fed rate hike in December that was sidelined on uncertainty and fears before markets digested the news and took a better look into Trump’s program.
The US dollar Index pulled back after regaining former high at 99.08, posted on 25 Oct and was 0.1% down in late Asian session, but maintaining strong bullish stance and being on track for strong bullish weekly close.
However, further dips on profit-taking action after strong rally cannot be ruled out.
The Euro was slightly higher against dollar in Asia on Friday, but without significant action. The pair probed briefly above 1.0900 barrier, but upside attempts were limited, as focus remain at the downside, for retest of 1.0849 target and possible further acceleration lower, on strengthening dollar.
British pound is the only exception, as it bounced strongly against the dollar and broke above previous high at 1.2555, on hopes that special relationships between US and UK will be further developed during Trump’s presidency. Comparison of ranges during post-election turmoil between cable and the other major pairs, signals that Sterling found ground and regained strong bullish stance, amid broader dollar’s strength.
Sterling was also significantly higher against the euro, rallying 1.5% on Thursday and hitting fresh six-week high at 0.8660, as investors unwound euro’s short positions against pound on uncertainty about US election.

The dollar stood tall against Japanese yen in early Friday’s trading, hovering near fresh high at 106.93, posted on Thursday’s surge by 1.09% that extended pair’s steep ascend into fifth straight day.
The dollar also broke and close above strong technical barrier at 106.63, generating strong bullish signals for further advance of strengthening dollar, as yen lost its safe-haven appeal.
Antipodean currencies remained at the back foot on Friday. Australian dollar was down 0.18% in late Asia, while New Zealand dollar registered loss of 0.4%, with both currencies remaining in steep descend against dollar that extends into third consecutive day.
The Kiwi dollar was under additional pressure after RBNZ cut interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75% on Wednesday and is on track for weekly loss of over 2%.
Gold prices extended losses on Friday and hit fresh four-week low at $1250, following strong bearish acceleration on Thursday, when the yellow was down 1.5%. Sharp fall in demand for safe-haven gold, as traders reversed their view about Trump presidency, pushed gold price significantly lower. Gold is on track for weekly loss of nearly 3%.
Asian stocks fell on Friday on fears of higher interest rates under incoming President Donald Trump that would trigger stronger outflow of capital from the region.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.4%, as U.S. bond yields continued to soar on views that Trump’s spending plans will push up inflation, possibly triggering more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Japan’s Nikkei225 opposed overall negative sentiment for Asian stocks and currencies, rising over 1% on Friday, on significantly weaker Japanese yen.
European stocks were in red after Friday’s opening. FTSE100 was down 0.48% in early hours of European session; DAX was down 0.13% and CAC40 was flat at the time of writing.
Highlights of the day

Europe
Inflation in Germany in October came along with expectations and previous release at 0.2%.

America
Due to Veterans Day holiday in the US, some markets will be closed.
FOMC member Fischer is due to speak at 14:00 GMT.
Release of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due at 15:00 GMT. Forecast for November is at 87.5, above downward-revised October’s release at 87.2.

Important levels
GBPUSD
The pound continues to rally against dollar, unaffected by fresh strength of greenback. Fresh acceleration in early Europe broke above 1.2600 handle, as the pair eventually broke above previous high at 1.2555. The pair is eyeing next n/t targets at 1.2634 and 1.2682, as stronger bullish acceleration could extend above 1.2700 barrier and expose former post-Brexit low at 1.2795.
Immediate support lies at 1.2580, followed by 1.2520 and 1.2480.
USDJPY
The pair eases from fresh high at 106.93, with correction being shallow so far. Yesterday’s close above 200SMA at 106.53 generated strong bullish signal for stretch above 107.00 barrier and extension towards 1047.47 target.
Initial supports lay at 106.20/00, followed by 105.50 and 104.90., Market Analysis