ECB policy decision is in focus this week
European Central Bank policy meeting is in focus this week. The event is due on Thursday, with rate announcement at 11:45 GMT, followed ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference at 12:30 GMT.
The Euro advanced strongly after Mr. Draghi’s comments three weeks ago, which sounded quite hawkish on remarks that deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones.
Markets reacted on Draghi’s comments which were supported by positive outlook about the Eurozone recovery, sending the single currency initially to the levels above 1.1400. The Euro maintained bullish tone despite comments from ECB, trying to cool down traders, saying that Draghi’s remarks do not mean that the central bank is going to start tightening in the near future.
Fresh weakness of the US dollar kept the Euro at the front foot, following weaker than expected US data that depressed the greenback and signaled that the Fed may delay its expected rate hike towards the end of 2017.
The ECB is widely expected to stay on hold on Thursday and focus will turn on the central bank’s statement and Draghi’s tone.
On Thursday’s press conference Mario Draghi is expected to choose his words more carefully, as strong Euro is not something he needs ahead of starting winding down Quantitative Easing program and start tightening policy.
It will be a hard work for Draghi to prepare investors for start of normalizing policy but also to avoid stronger disruption of the markets.
The Euro is holding firm tone and continues to advance, just few days ahead of ECB’s meeting. Positive sentiment on expectations that the ECB will give stronger signals of the beginning of tightening process, as well as weakening dollar, keep the Euro supported.
The single currency hit fresh multi-month high above 1.1500 on Tuesday, turning focus towards strong resistances above 1.1700, ahead of central bank’s meeting.
On the other side, disappointing tone from Draghi may depress the single currency, which may revisit strong supports at 1.1370 and 1.1300 zone, while deeper pullback would generate reversal signal and put recent bulls on hold.