Commodities 16.11.2016

Commodities 16.11.2016

GOLD
Spot Gold is consolidating above $1210, low of strong post US elections fall (50% retracement of larger $1046/$1375 ascend), with consolidation extending into third straight day. Upside attempts from $1210 low were so far capped at $1230 zone, which guards strong barrier at $1241 (former low of 07 Oct), where upticks should be ideally capped. However, extended upticks cannot be ruled out as daily studies are oversold, but no bullish signal being generated for now.
Last week’s fall has completed H&S pattern on the weekly chart (neckline of which was cracked on dip to $1210) that could signal stronger bearish acceleration. Gold price is looking for test of key med-term support at $1200 (30 May low), break of which is needed to confirm bearish resumption and further retracement of multi-month $1046/$1375 ascend that could extend towards $1172 (Fibo 61.8%).
Res: 1232; 1241; 1254; 1260
Sup: 1223; 1210; 1200; 1190

gold-16-11

US CRUDE OIL
Oil price pulls back from fresh recovery highs at $46.07/16, where daily 100SMA / Fibo 38.2% of $52.21/$42.19 capped rally. Yesterday’s long bullish daily candle (which marks the biggest one-day gains since 28 Sep) so far did not produce enough support for further extension of two-day recovery rally from $42.21. Overall structure remains bearish and risk of recovery stall exists, as rally was capped ahead of plethora of strong barriers (20/55 bear-cross at $46.98 / daily Kijun-sen at $47.20 / daily cloud top at $47.65), break of which is required to confirm stronger recovery.
Meantime, the price returned below daily cloud base (45.41) and daily close below here would weaken near-term structure. Extension below $44.57 (10SMA and more significant $44.24 support (200SMA) would signal an end of near-term recovery phase and shift focus lower again.

Res: 45.41; 46.16; 46.98; 47.20
Sup: 44.57; 44.24; 44.00; 43.54
crude-oil-16-11, Market Analysis