GOLD

Near-term price action is consolidating under fresh high of the upleg from $1122 at $1206, after failure to sustain break above psychological $1200 barrier and clear strong resistances at $1204/12 (Fibo 38.2% of $1337/$1122 descend/daily cloud base).
Technical studies are firmly bullish and supportive for renewed attempts higher, however, extended consolidation may precede fresh rally. Initial support at $1191 should ideally contain, however, extended dips towards $1177 (rising 10SMA) cannot be ruled out.
Caution is required as falling daily cloud and thickening weekly cloud (at $1210/12 respectively) may cap rally from $1122 and signal an end of corrective phase.
Loss of $1177 handle would generate initial bearish signal, while extension below $1164 (daily Kijun-sen) is needed to confirm reversal.

Res: 1200; 1204; 1212; 1221
Sup: 1191; 1187; 1177; 1174

US CRUDE OIL

Oil price dipped to the bottom of today’s congestion between daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, pressuring lower pivot at $52.40 (daily Kijun-sen / Fibo 38.2% of $50.74/$53.48 upleg). Negative sentiment is building on doubts over extent of total OPEC production cut that was agreed previously, pressuring oil’s near-term action. Daily 10/20 SMA’s are turning into negative setup and along with building bearish momentum, could further pressure oil price. Also, oil is on track for the second consecutive bearish weekly close that would generate negative signal. Firm break below $52.40 would trigger extension towards next pivot at $51.79 and possibly expose trough at $50.70. Return below psychological $50.00 support would give firmer signal of upside rejection at $55.22 and deeper pullback. Conversely, bounce and close above daily Tenkan-sen ($52.96) is needed to ease rising downside pressure.

Res: 52.96; 53.16; 53.48; 53.81

Sup: 52.11; 51.79; 51.39; 50.70

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