The US jobs report is key release today. Forecast stands at 181K for July, below 222K last month, with forecasts in past few months being stable within 180/190K and signaling that economists expect fairly stable jobs figures. Some dissonant tone came from fall to 98K in April and jump to 222K in June but did not show stronger impact on US jobs sector which stands at firm base and its near full employment.
Strong numbers in June failed to reduce the speed of dollar’s fall last month.
Signals for weaker than expected figure today could come from employment components from US Manufacturing and non-Manufacturing PMI reports which fell in July to 55.2 from 57.2 (Manufacturing) and 53.6 from 55.8 (non-Manufacturing).
US ADP private sector jobs report that is usually used as an indication for NFP release, also missed expectations in July on dip to178K vs forecasted 185K and upward-revised figure in June from 158K to 191K.
Markets are focusing report on wages as the key figure which would have the strongest impact on markets today. Earnings are forecasted to rise by 0.3% in July, compared to 0.2% in June but annualized figure is expected to tick lower to 2.4% from 2.5%, which may have negative impact on the greenback.
Slow pace in earnings growth and stubbornly low inflation were so far offsetting positive numbers from other key sectors and may further delay Fed in its attempts to hike interest rates once more this year, if today’s release disappoints.