Market Outlook for 30th November 2016

Market Outlook for 30th November 2016

The dollar edged higher against the basket of major currencies in early Wednesday’s trading and pared a part of losses made on Tuesday. Fresh strength was driven by upbeat US GDP numbers in Q3, released on Tuesday and fresh ascend of US debt yields. US GDP came at 3.2% in the third quarter, above the forecast at 3.0% and 2.9% in the second quarter.
However, gains were so far limited, as investors are awaiting OPEC meeting due later in the day, outcome of which could trigger volatility in the markets and affect the dollar.

The dollar index was up 0.16% in Asia, after three consecutive days in red on 1.4% pullback from fresh 14-year peak at 102.11. Dollar’s overall picture remains bullish, boosted by positive post-US elections sentiment and expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in December.

The dollar maintains bullish tone against yen for the second day, after correction from fresh high at 113.88 found support at 111.34 and the pair bounced to 113.32 high on Tuesday. The dollar was up 0.5% in Asia and peaked near 113.00 barrier.
The pair is on track for the strongest multi-year monthly gains, as it rallied 7.5% in November.

The Euro eased against the dollar overnight, being down 0.21% for the session, being for now under strong resistance at 1.0700, but also showing limited downside attempts. Outlook for Euro remains negative and keeps focus at very important 1.0500 zone.
Antipodean currencies were overall positive in Asian session on Wednesday. Australian dollar held steady but with limited upside, as it faces strong headwinds at 0.7500 zone. Aussie showed modest losses after the release of downbeat Australian housing sector data. Building approvals unexpectedly fell 12.6% on October, following expectations for 1.5% rise.

On the other side, New Zealand dollar moved higher on Wednesday, extending recovery rally into fourth straight day, despite disappointing numbers November’s Business confidence that slipped to 20.5 from 24.5 in October.

Crude oil prices were up on Wednesday. US oil rallied 1.5% in Asia, while Brent oil was up 1.39%, as OPEC started meeting in Vienna. The cartel is expected to reach long-awaited agreement about oil production cut, as global oversupply continues to pressure oil price for two years.
The 14-country group, which accounts for a third of global oil production, made a preliminary agreement in Algiers in September to cap output at around 32.5-33 million barrels versus the current production 33.64 million barrels per day, to prop up oil prices, which have halved since mid-2014.

Gold price edged lower on Wednesday, following repeated recovery rejection under strong resistance at $1200 zone but remains in consolidation phase after falling strongly on dollar’s strong post-US elections rally. The yellow metal is on track for over 11% fall in November, the biggest one-month loss since June.
Asian stocks tried to stabilize after a rocky November trading, but Wednesday’s session brought new anxieties as Chinese equities and commodities fell amid worries that Beijing’s efforts to support its currency could squeeze liquidity.

China 50 Index was down 1.36% on Wednesday, in red for the first time after seven days.
Decline in Chinese stocks weighed on regional markets with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan trimming early gains and ending up 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.25%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.42%, while Singapore index was among the top gainers, being up 0.94%.

European stocks were bullish in early Wednesday’s trading. German DAX was up 0.29%; French CAC40 index rose 0.35, both extending rally for the second day. Britain’s FTSE100 gained 0.35% in early trading on Wednesday, after being in red for past two days.
Highlights of the day

Europe
Jobs data from Germany are in focus of European session. Number of unemployed is expected fall by 5K in November, but the forecast is still well above October’s fall of 13K.
Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.0% in November.
Data are due at 08:55 GMT.
OPEC meeting starts at 09:00 GMT.
Eurozone’s inflation is expected to tick higher in November, according to the forecast at 0.6%, vs 0.5% in October.
Core CPI is expected to stay unchanged at 0.8%.
ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak at 12:30 GMT.

America
US ADP Non-Farm employment data for November are due at 13:15. Forecast shows raise by 161K in November, from 147K in October. This is used as an indication for US Non-Farm payrolls data that are due on Friday.
Canada’s GDP is expected to fall in November, according to the forecast of 0.1%, from 0.2% in October.
US Pending Home Sales are seen rising by 0.2% in October, after making strong gains of 1.5% on September. Release is due at 15:00 GMT.
US weekly crude inventories are due at 14:30 GMT. Forecast shows build of 0.7 million barrels in the past week, compared to 1.2 million barrels draw previous week.
Important levels
EURUSD
The Euro bounces from session low at 1.0618, eyeing recovery high at 1.0684 and pivotal barrier at 1.0700. Correction from fresh low and strong support at 1.0519 was so far limited and sustained break above 1.0700 barrier would signal further recovery.
Initial supports lay at 1.0618/00, followed by 1.0565 and key 1.0519 support.
GBPUSD
The pound returned back to strong resistance zone at 1.2510/29, after downside attempts were contained 1.2380 (near-term range floor). Cable continues to trade within the range and sustained break above 1.2529 trigger, is expected to signal fresh upside. Next barriers lay at 1.2585 and 1.2600.
Initial support lies at 1.2465, ahead of 1.2414 and key near-term support at 1.2380., Market Analysis