Technical Outlook for Majors 29/11/2016
EURUSD
Recovery attempts from 1.0519 low showed signs of stall, following failure to clearly break above daily Tenkan-sen and yesterday’s trading that ended in long-legged Doji candle.
Rally was capped under psychological 1.0700 barrier (also Fibo 23.6% of 1.1298/1.0519, post US elections fall) and subsequent easing that is probing again below 1.0600 handle (hourly cloud base).
Overall bearish daily studies keep the downside at risk, with daily Tenkan-sen capping (currently at 1.0630) and repeated close below it, expected to keep focus at critical support zone between 1.0519 and 1.0461 (2016 lows).
Alternative scenario requires rally and close above 1.0700 barrier, to generate bullish signals for stronger correction.
Res: 1.0620; 1.0630; 1.0684; 1.0700
Sup: 1.0587; 1.0562; 1.0519; 1.0500
GBPUSD
Cable edged lower after yesterday’s recovery rejection at strong 1.2529 barrier (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2671/1.2300 downleg) and daily close well below cracked strong barrier at 1.2510. Near-term price action is holding around daily Tenkan-sen line (currently at 1.2452) after touching strong support at 1.2386 (floor of one-week congestion / base of descending daily cloud, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line), keeping the downside under pressure.
Sustained break here is needed to signal bearish resumption and expose key near-term support at 1.2300 (18 Nov low).
Conversely, extended range-trading could be expected while daily Kijun-sen line is holding downside attempts. Upper breakpoints remain at 1.2510/29.
Res: 1.2425; 1.2440; 1.2473; 1.2510
Sup: 1.2376; 1.2358; 1.2300; 1.2255
USDJPY
The dollar bounces to 112.70 zone after two-day pullback from fresh eight-month high at 113.88 was contained by rising 10SMA at 111.34. Near-term technicals are gaining traction on fresh recovery rally that retraced over 50% of 113.88/111/34 pullback and is pressuring next trigger at 112.95 (yesterday’s high / near Fibo 61.8%). Close above here is needed to confirm reversal and higher low at 111.34.
Daily indicators are turning north and support further upside, as triple Golden- cross on daily chart underpins the advance.
Near-term focus remains at the upside, eyeing targets at 114.28 (Fibo 61.8% of 123.74/98.98) and 115.68 (weekly cloud top) in extension. Cracked weekly cloud base offers strong support at 111.62 and near-term bulls will remain in play while the price holds above it.
Res: 112.91; 113.28; 113.88; 114.28
Sup: 111.62; 111.34; 110.88; 110.00
AUDUSD
Corrective rally from 0.7308 (21 Nov low) found strong resistance at 0.7487 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7776/0.7308 fall) that limits upside attempts. Brief probes above were so far short-lived and show initial signs of recovery stall, as overall structure is bearish and overbought Slow Stochastic is turning lower.
Ideally, recovery rally should reverse under 200SMA (currently at 0.7521), with falling 20SMA approaching in attempt to form Death-cross and reinforce barrier.
Pullback from recovery top at 0.7495 (today’s high), so far retraced 23.6% of 0.7308/0.7495 upleg, with stronger bearish signal expected on extension below 0.7423 (Fibo 38.2% retracement).
Alternatively, sustained break above 200SMA and daily Kijun-sen at 0.7540, would generate fresh bullish signal for extended recovery.
Res: 0.7495; 0.7521; 0.7540; 0.7569
Sup: 0.7453; 0.7423; 0.7401; 0.7379