Market Outlook for 25th November 2016

Market Outlook for 25th November 2016

The dollar gained pace in early Friday trading after quiet Thursday’s afternoon session due to Thanksgiving holiday. The greenback was higher at the beginning of Asian session and hit fresh 8-month high against the yen at 113.88, but pared overnight’s gains on quick pullback in late Asian trading.
Dollar-yen hit session low at 112.81, falling nearly 100 pips and down 0.17% for the session.

The dollar index dipped to session low at 101.37, after gap higher opening on Friday that hit session high at 101.96.The index posted fresh 14-year high at 102.11 in early Thursday’s trading.

The dollar remains supported as US bond yields continues to rise and on hopes of US interest rate hike, however, analysts expect some adjustments lower, as dollar’s uptrend remains intact and showed no firmer signals of correction for now. End of the week profit taking would push the greenback lower, but overall strong bulls are still firmly in play.

The Euro cracked 1.0600 barrier on a bounce from fresh low at 1.0516, after it dented key 1.0519 support. Strong hesitation at this zone that we mentioned in yesterday’s report, has materialized in

Thursday’s Doji candle and today’s bounce. The single currency was up 0.37% against the dollar in Asia, but overall strong bearish sentiment is still in play and stronger recovery signals would be generated on break above 1.0656 pivot.

Spot gold met its next target at $1171 on fresh dollar’s rally in early Asian trading, maintaining strong bearish stance, but manage to pare some losses later in the session. This support is very important for gold and ability to hold above it would be seen as initial signal of stabilisation. However, strong bearish pressure on US interest rate change sensitive gold persists, amid expectations on steps of Trump’s administration that would boost inflation and higher rates. Such scenario would push gold price further down. Bounce on Friday’s profit taking could be seen as likely scenario for today, with resistances at $1190 and $1200. The latter is expected to ideally limit upside attempts, as overall structure remains firmly bearish.

Asian stocks advanced on Friday as the Thanksgiving break in the United States helped slow a relentless surge in the dollar that has sucked capital out of most emerging markets.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.5% on Friday and being on track to end the week 1.7% higher, its biggest weekly gain in two months. However, the index remains down 2.7% from its close on Nov. 8 before Trump’s surprise election win, as his protectionist campaign promises are widely seen as negative for the region.

Chinese blue chip CSI 300 index was up 0.4% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.26% for the session and hit fresh 6-months high. Japan’s stocks ended higher on Friday’ supported by gains in Automobiles, Shipbuilding and warehousing sectors, with Mitsubishi Motors; Casio Computer and Panasonic, being top performers on Nikkei index on Friday.
European stocks were generally lower after opening on Friday. DAX was down 0.39%; CAC40 fell 0.31%, while FTSE 100 was flat at the time of writing.
Highlights of the day

Europe
Release of UK’s GDP for the third quarter is the highlight of the European session. Numbers for Q3 are expected to remain stable and unchanged from Q2. Forecast for q/q release is unchanged at 0.5%, while consensus for q/q remains at 2.3%.

America
US Trade gap is expected to widen in October, according to forecast at -59.20 billion dollars, compared to the gap of 56.08 billion in September. Release is due at 13:30 GMT.
US Services PMI is expected to stay unchanged at 54.8 in November.
Important levels
EURUSD
The Euro extended bounce and probes above strong resistance at 1.0600 on Friday, after cracking very strong support at 1.0519 previous day. Stronger upside action could be anticipated, with violation of key near-term barrier at 1.0656, expected to generate stronger bullish signal. Overall picture remains strongly bearish, but profit-taking action at the end of the week may delay bears.
Initial support lies at 1.0584; followed by 1.0537 and key 1.0516, Thursday’s low.

USDJPY
The dollar eased quickly after hitting fresh high at 113.88, pullback approached initial support at 112.30 zone, ahead of 112.00, loss of which would signal further easing and expose supports at 111.35 and 110.85.
At the upside, targets lay at 114.28 and 114.60/80., Market Analysis