Market Outlook for 24th November 2016
The US dollar remains well supported and accelerated to fresh highs in late Asian trading, after bulls made a brief break overnight. Fresh bullish acceleration was triggered on upbeat US Durables data on Wednesday, reinforcing strong bullish sentiment on optimism over the strength of the US economy and likely interest rate hike in December.
Yesterday’s release of the minutes of FOMC November’s meeting did not add much new information but confirmed the widely held view that the Fed will hike rates in December.
The dollar index which tracks US dollar’s performance against six major currencies ticked above 102.00 barrier on Thursday, signalling extension of Wednesday’s strong rally when the index was up 0.64%, also on track for the third consecutive bullish weekly close.
The Euro eventually met its med-term target at 1.0519 (Dec 2015 low) on Thursday, after previous attempts lower hit levels just ticks above it. Strong bearish sentiment continues to drive the single currency lower. The pair is set for further losses after falling 0.70% on Wednesday, as fresh bearish acceleration cracked the upper boundary of critical support zone between 1.0519 and 1.0461. The Euro is on track for the third weekly close in red, following its strong post-US elections bearish acceleration.
On the other side, British pound remains resilient amid broad dollar’s strength. Cable was holding around 1.2400 handle in early Thursday’s trading, following brief attempts lower and keeping key near-term support at 1.2300 intact for now.
Japanese yen fell to new multi-month lows against dollar on Thursday, as dollar’s fresh bullish acceleration drove dollar/yen above psychological 113.00 barrier. The pair is on track for completion of the third straight strong weekly performance and eyes strong technical barriers at 114.28 and 115.68.
Australian dollar edged lower in Asia on Thursday, amid fresh US dollar’s strength. The Aussie fell on Wednesday on recovery rejection above 0.7400 handle and is in red in early Thursday’s trading, down 0.20% in Asia.
Kiwi dollar hit new four-month lows on renewed probe below psychological 0.7000 support, on extension of Wednesday’s strong fall when the pair was down 0.84%. Kiwi dollar was down 0.41% in Asia.
Gold was among top losers on Wednesday, when the price fell over 2%, on sharp bearish acceleration that eventually took out strong support at $1200. Early Thursday’s trading saw brief consolidation ahead of fresh attempts lower on strong bearish sentiment. The yellow metal hit fresh marginally lower low at $1180 on Thursday, on track for the third week in strong bearish mode, pressured by strengthening dollar and increasing expectations of US rate hike. Gold is looking for technical support at $1172, with stronger bearish acceleration not ruled out in the short-term.
Crude oil prices were static on Thursday, following end of Wednesday’s trading in long-legged Doji candlestick that signals strong indecision, on uncertainty over planned oil production cut that was agreed by oil producers meeting earlier and requires verification on OPEC meeting in December.
Most of Asian stock markets were lower on Thursday, as upbeat US economic data strengthened the prospect for higher interest rates, while the dollar’s bull run continued, with US bond yields surged to multi-year highs.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan pared Wednesday’s gains and was down 0.4%, as focus returned to the United States. Facing the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates diverting money from emerging markets, it has lost 3.5% this month.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.2% while higher metals prices lifted China’s CSI300 index by 0.4%. South Korea’s Kospi was down 0.7%
Japan’s Nikkei was up 1.1%, touching its highest level since early January. Japanese stocks continue to rally, driven by weakening yen.
European stocks opened mixed on Thursday. FTSE100 was marginally lower, down 0.10%, while DAX and CAC 40 were up after start of the European session. German index was up 0.22% at the time of writing and French index registered marginal gain of 0.09%.
Highlights of the day
Europe
German GDP met expectations in the fourth quarter, rising 0.2%, unchanged from Q3 release.
German Ifo Business climate is expected to stay unchanged in November, according the forecast at 110.5. Release is due at 09:00 GMT.
America
Most of US markets will be closed due to Thanksgiving Holiday. Lower volumes and quiet trading could be expected in American session.
Important levels
EURUSD
The Euro eventually reached its s/t target at 1.0519 (Dec 2015 low), on extension of Wednesday’s strong bearish acceleration. The level marks the upper boundary of critical support zone that lies between 1.0519 and 1.0461, break of which would trigger more significant losses.
However, strong hesitation could be expected at this level. Extended consolidation will face immediate resistance at 1.0567, followed by 1.0600 and 1.0656 pivot.
USDJPY
The pair surged above 113.00 barrier on fresh bullish acceleration, hitting the highest levels since March. Bulls are eyeing next target at 114.28, with possible extension to weekly cloud top at 115.68, on strong bullish sentiment.
Immediate support lies at 112.36, followed by weekly cloud base at 112.12 and former highs at 111.34., Market Analysis