Technical Outlook for Majors 22/11/2016
EURUSD
The Euro is trading at the upper side of near-term consolidation, spanned between fresh low at 1.0567 and consolidation tops at 1.0650 that mark decent resistance for now. Fresh recovery from session low at 1.0603 is attacking again 1.0650 barrier (also top of thick hourly cloud), with sustained break here needed to signal extended recovery. Sustained break higher would open next pivot at 1.0671 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.0744/1.0567 downleg) and signal further upside on violation.
However, the move is seen as modest correction of steep 10-day descend, before fresh bears push towards key supports at 1.0519 and 1.0461 (lows of Dec/Mar 2015). Series of long bearish candles on post-US election fall, continue to strongly weigh on near-term structure and suggest limited correction ahead of fresh bear-leg.
The upper breakpoint lies at 1.0744 (high of 17 Nov/ Fibo 23.6% of entire 1.1298/1.0567 fall) and only sustained break here would question near-term bears.
Res: 1.0656; 1.0671; 1.0700; 1.0740
Sup: 1.0603; 1.0567; 1.0519; 1.0500
GBPUSD
Cable is holding positive tone and consolidating under fresh high at 1.2510, which was hit after Monday’s strong rally and retested on Tuesday. The rally cracked the upper pivot at 1.2486 (daily Tenkan-sen) and needs daily close above here to confirm strong bullish stance. Highs at 1.2510 offer so far good resistance, but bullish near-term technicals support fresh attacks. Sustained break to open next significant barrier at 1.2930 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2671/1.2300 / base of widening daily Ichimoku cloud) which marks the breakpoint for resumption of near-term bulls towards 1.2600 initially, with extension towards key near-term barrier at 1.2671 (1 Nov high), seen in extension.
Session low marks initial support at 1.2462, followed by 1.2434 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2310/1.2510 upleg and round-figure 1.2400 support. Downside triggers lay at 1.2487/76 (Fibo 61.8% / daily Kijun-sen), loss of which will be bearish.
Res: 1.2510; 1.2530; 1.2584; 1.2600
Sup: 1.2462; 1.2534; 1.2400; 1.2376
USDJPY
The pair remains within narrow consolidation under fresh multi-month high at 111.34, posted on Monday, when the pair met its target (50% retracement of 123.74/98.98, Nov 2015 / June 2016 descend). Strong bullish signals (daily Tenkan-sen in steep ascend / double Golden-cross of daily 10/200 & 20/200 SMA’s) are supportive for further extension of strong rally after US elections. The pair is eyeing next strong barrier at 112.12 (base of falling weekly cloud), penetration of which will generate another bullish signal.
However, caution on extremely overbought daily studies and yesterday’s Doji that could be seen as initial signs of possible recovery stall. Watch today’s close for clearer signals.
Good supports and first downside triggers lay at 110.25/00 and sustained break here would signal further easing.
Res: 111.34; 111.87; 112.12; 112.50
Sup: 110.54; 110.25; 110.00; 109.78
AUDUSD
The pair extends recovery from fresh low at 0.7308 for the second day and cracks psychological 0.7400 barrier (hourly cloud top / near Fibo 38.2% of 0.7579/0.7308 downleg. Overall structure remains firmly bearish, but correction on oversold daily studies may extend. Sustained break above 0.7400 handle wil be seen as initial signal for further correction which may extend towards 0.7443 and 0.7475 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 0.7579/0.7308 downleg). Reversal of daily RSI and Slow Stochastic from overbought territory supports scenario. Extended recovery should be capped under 0.7524 (10/200SMA’s bear-cross) to keep strong bearish structure intact for fresh attempts lower.
Res: 0.7411; 0.7443; 0.7475; 0.7524
Sup: 0.7367; 0.7343; 0.7308; 0.7283