Technical Outlook for Majors 31/10/2016
EURUSD
The Euro pulls back from Friday’s recovery top at 1.0990, posted on strong bullish acceleration. The pair dipped to 1.0849 so far (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0881/1.0990 upleg / near daily Tenkan-sen line), which marks solid support and trigger for further easing. Firm break here would sideline initial hopes of stronger recovery, sparked by Friday’s strong rally that left long bullish daily candle, as gains stalled on approach to psychological 1.1000 barrier.
However, while daily Tenkan-sen holds, fresh upside attempts cannot be ruled out, with limited upticks seen as selling opportunities.
Overall bearish structure maintains downside risk, with the pair being on track for strong bearish monthly close.
Good offers lay at 1.1000/13 (round-figure / Fibo 38.2% of larger 1.1227/1.0849 descend), ahead of 1.1038 (20 Oct spike high) below which extended upticks should be capped.
Only sustained break above 1.1063 (daily Kijun-sen / mid-point of 1.1227/1.0849 downleg) would neutralize downside threats and signal stronger correction.
Res: 1.0970; 1.0990; 1.1013; 1.1038
Sup: 1.0949; 1.0936; 1.0923; 1.0900
GBPUSD
Cable holds overall negative structure, despite upticks on Friday / today, which were so far capped by daily Tenkan-sen above 1.2200 handle.
Daily MA’s and Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen lines are bearishly aligned and keep the downside in focus. Increased downside risk will remain in play while Tenkan-sen line stays intact, with Friday’s low at 1.2112 and 25 Oct spike low at 1.2081, remaining in focus.
Extended upticks cannot be ruled out (as momentum studies are attempting to break into positive territory), with potential probe above Tenkan-sen barrier, expected to stay capped under next strong resistance at 1.2270 (27 Oct high).
Alternative scenario requires break above 1.2270 and attempts towards key 1.2330 barrier, to neutralize persisting downside risk.
Res: 1.2205; 1.2247; 1.2269; 1.2300
Sup: 1.2157; 1.2112; 1.2081; 1.1997
USDJPY
The pair over a half of Friday’s sharp fall from fresh high at 105.51 that bottomed at 104.45, on today’s fresh bullish acceleration above broken former bull-channel upper boundary that regained 105.00 handle so far.
Recent strong gains were capped just under 105.60 target (Fibo 76.4% of 107.47/99.52 downleg), with Friday’s long red candle not significantly hurting overall bulls so far.
Firm bullish setup of daily studies and the price on track for strong monthly bullish close, support further advance. Sustained break above 105.60 barrier would open way for extension towards falling 200SMA, currently at 107.17, which lies just ahead of key barrier at 107.47 (21 July high).
However, prolonged consolidation under fresh high could be anticipated, with support at 104.45 (Friday’s low), being reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen (104.33), expected to hold.
Only sustained break here would sideline near-term bulls for stronger correction.
Res: 105.12; 105.51; 105.60; 106.00
Sup: 104.68; 104.45; 104.33; 103.70
AUDUSD
The pair retraced 38.2% of 0.7707/0.7556 downleg on recovery from Friday’s spike low at 0.7556 that extends for the second day and so far peaked at 0.7616. Long-tailed bullish candle on Friday and bounce above thinning daily cloud generated bullish signal, however, gains were so far capped by daily Kijun-sen / Fibo 38.2% pivots.
The downside is expected to remain at risk while the latter barriers cap, however, mixed daily studies signal not clear near-term direction.
Lift above upper triggers at 0.7618 /44 (daily Kijun-sen / daily Tenkan –sen) is needed to bring near-term bulls fully in play, while return below daily cloud base at 0.7572 would weaken near-term structure and risk retest of Friday’s spike low and pivot at 0.7556.
Res: 0.7618; 0.7644; 0.7671; 0.7707
Sup: 0.7572; 0.7556; 0.7528; 0.7504