Midday market view 19/10/2016

Midday market view 19/10/2016

After solid numbers from China overnight, UK jobs data were in focus of European session. Upbeat jobless claims and Unemployment / Average earnings coming at expected levels, supported British pound which hit new one week high on probe above former recovery top at 1.2323.
The US dollar remains supported against Euro that came near key support at 1.0950 after several attempts above 1.1000 barrier failed, but remains at the back foot against other major counterparts.
USDJPY broke below strong support at 103.50 and posted fresh one-week low at 103.23, while cable hit new high at 1.2330.
Australian dollar maintains firm tone against the greenback and holds just under fresh recovery high.
The dollar did not show significant reaction on mixed US housing data today. US Sep Housing Starts fell below expectations to 1.05M in September, against forecast at 1.18M, while Sep US Building Permits surprised at the upside at 1.23M vs forecast at 1.18M and Aug upward-revised release at 1.15M.
Bank of Canada monetary policy release and US Weekly Crude stocks are in focus in the afternoon. BOC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50%, while crude stocks are forecasted for build of 2.2 million barrels vs previous week’s build of 4.9 million barrels.
Releases are due at 14:00 and 14:30 GMT respectively.
Foreign Exchange

EURUSD is down 0.4% from European high at 1.1003, where upside attempts were capped. Fresh weakness pressures series of supports between 1.0950 and 1.0909, loss of which would open next support levels at 1.0800 zone. Solid resistances lay at 1.1000/25, ahead of 1.1060/80.

GBPUSD remains supported and fresh upside attempts posted marginally higher high at 1.2330. Daily close above former top at 1.2323 is needed to signal further recovery and expose next barrier at 1.2400.
AUDUSD consolidates under fresh high at 0.7688, after six-day rally, but holds high levels against the dollar and eyes key 0.7708 target. The pair gained 0.34% from opening.

USDJPY turned lower after several rejections above 104.00 barrier. Fresh weakness broke below key support at 103.50 and marked 0.58% loss from the opening. Dips are seen towards 102.85 support, before bulls take control. Downside breakpoint lies at 102.33.

Commodities
US CRUDE OIL maintains firm tone for the second day and holds near highs at $51.58/65. Oil price may be additionally boosted on downside surprise of US crude stocks data, while stronger build of stocks would re-attract key near-term supports at $49.80 zone.

GOLD made significant gains today, rallying 0.79% since opening and hitting fresh high at $1272, after strong resistance (200SMA) was taken out. The yellow metal regained traction after traders reassess prospects for US rate hike that decreased after Tuesday’s strong inflation data. Next strong barrier lies at $1280, while broken $1265 resistance now acts as good support.
Stocks
European stocks are mixed on Wednesday, as DAX remains supported and hits fresh session high at 10654; CAC-40 is holding just under Tuesday’s high at 4518, after today’s dips were contained at 4494, while FTSE 100 is bearishly aligned on Wednesday and holding well below Tuesday’s high at 6997, but without clear direction, as today’s price action was so far shaped in Doji candle., Market Analysis