Technical Outlook for Majors 19/10/2016
EURUSD
The Euro returned to 1.0960 support zone, following repeated failures to sustain gains above 1.1000 barrier. Near-term price action is entrenched within 1.0960/1.1000 range, with negative technical studies maintaining bearish pressure. Past two day close below 1.1000, despite spikes above and yesterday’s red daily candle with long upper shadow, confirmed persisting selling pressure.
Yesterday’s spike-high at 1.1025 marks next good resistance which is expected to cap extended upticks, ahead of final push towards plethora of strong support between 1.0950 and 1.0909.
Former upside rejections at 1.1060 zone marks the first upside trigger, ahead of 1.1082 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1277/1.0962 downleg / falling daily Tenkan-sen), break of which is needed to confirm reversal.
Res: 1.1000; 1.1025; 1.1060; 1.1082
Sup: 1.0970; 1.0962; 1.0950; 1.0937
GBPUSD
Cable spiked higher on positive UK data, leaving higher low at 1.2255 on repeated attempt above strong barrier at 1.2323 (peaks of 10 /18 Oct / near-term congestion tops). Fresh strength probes above daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.2308, break of which will generate initial bullish signal for extended recovery.
The notion is supported by near-term studies that turned in bullish mode. Firm break above 1.2323 pivot will open next trigger at 1.2401 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3055/1.1997 fall), break of which is needed to confirm recovery.
Session low at 1.2255 (reinforced by broken 4-hr cloud base and Fibo 38.2% of 1.2134/1.2327 upleg) marks solid support, which should ideally contain corrective dips.
Res: 1.2327; 1.2370; 1.2401; 1.2442
Sup: 1.2255; 1.2218; 1.2206; 1.2175
USDJPY
The pair probes again below strong support at 103.50 (daily cloud top) after repeated upside rejections above 104.00 barrier. Sustained break below cloud top will signal stronger correction of 100.05/104.62 rally), with next good support at 102.85 (Fibo 38.2% retracement) which guards downside breakpoint at 102.33 (daily cloud base / daily Kijun-sen line), loss of which will be bearish.
Overall structure remains bullish and favors dip-buying above 102.33 trigger, for renewed attempts towards key n/t barriers at 104.43/62.
Res: 103.70; 103.93; 104.18; 104.35
Sup: 103.31; 102.85; 102.55; 102.33
AUDUSD
Aussie dollar holds firm bullish tone for the sixth consecutive day. The pair reached new recovery highs at 0.7687/88, coming ticks away from near-term target at 0.7708 (29 Sep high), to mark full retracement of 0.7708/0.7504 downleg) on retest and open way towards nearby peaks at 0.7730 and 0.7758.
Near-term price action is holding within narrow consolidation range between 0.7656 and 0.7688, which is expected to precede final push to 0.7708 barrier, as firm bullish setup of daily studies supports scenario.
However, Slow Stochastic is overbought on daily chart, suggesting corrective action in the near-term, but no reversal signal being generated so far.
Consolidation range floor offers solid support at 0.7656, which so far contained downside attempts, with extension below to open next support levels at 0.7645 and 0.7618, where extended dips should be contained.
Res: 0.7708; 0.7730; 0.7758; 0.7800
Sup: 0.7656; 0.7645; 0.7618; 0.7600
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