Midday market view 12/10/2016
British pound remains in focus on Wednesday, after sharp sell-off in late Tuesday’s trading was followed by strong rebound. The pound was boosted by offer of British Prime Minister Theresa May, who offered to give lawmakers some scrutiny of divorce process of Britain and EU.
This calmed market fears of a hard Brexit that initially drove the pound lower on Tuesday.
A court will rule on Thursday whether May can trigger Article 50, to initiate the process of separating Britain from the European Union, without the consent of parliament. A spokeswoman for May said there will be no vote in Britain’s parliament on triggering the formal Brexit talks.
The US dollar regained ground after fresh weakness was triggered by pounds strong rally and hit fresh highs against other major counterparts, while precious metals spiked lower.
All eyes are now turned towards the release of minutes of FOMC September’s meeting, for more clues about Fed’s readiness to hike rates by the end of the year.
Foreign Exchange
EURUSD remains in strong bearish mode, down 0.52% for the session and ticks away from psychological 1.1000 support. Extension of past two-day strong sell-off maintains firm bearish sentiment. Hawkish Fed could drove the single currency to key supports at 1.0950 and 1.0909. Upside attempts will face barriers at 1.1066, followed by strong 1.1108/22 levels.
GBPUSD eased from overnight’s recovery peak at 1.2323, down 0.87% from session high. Near-term technicals are weakening and support further easing, as overall structure is bearish. News from Fed are also expected to influence pound’s near-term performance. Supports lay at 1.2216 and 1.2177, while 1.2323 high marks initial resistance, above which next good barrier lies at 1.2401.
USDJPY regains strength for fresh attach at initial 104 barrier, as daily cloud proved to be strong support and contained recent dips. The pair is up 0.66% for the session, ticks ahead of initial barriers at 104.05/15, which so far guard key resistances at 104.30/43. Fed minutes are awaited for fresh signals. Rally through 104.30/43 would open way towards next barriers at 105.00 and 105.60.
Conversely, slide below daily cloud top, would soften near-term tone.
USDCHF hits fresh highs of 2 ½ months on extension of bull-leg from 0.9637 and is up 0.31% for the session. Swiss franc failed to benefit from upbeat Switzerland’s ZEW Economic expectation data that spiked to 5.2 in October from 2.7 in September, as strong dollar-bulls offset positive impact on Swiss franc. The pair eyes parity level, with interim barriers laying at 0.9950/65 zone.
Commodities
US CRUDE OIL eases further from fresh high at $51.58, but still holding above god supports at $50.38 and psychological $50 level. Energy ministers from Qatar; UAE; Algeria; Venezuela and Russia began informal talks with OPEC secretary general in attempts to coordinate effort to rebalance the oil market and to nail down an agreement on modest output cut, the first one since 2008, following an agreement reached last month in Algiers.
GOLD slipped to $1249 per ounce, as fresh weakness emerged after repeated upside rejections and 200SMA continuing to cap. The yellow metal is awaiting hints from Fed for fresh near-term direction. Sentiment remains negative and hawkish Fed would trigger fresh weakness through temporary support at $1241, towards targets at $1234 and $1220.
On the flip side, above $1265 barrier, next target lies at $1280
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Stocks
European stocks were lower on Wednesday, extending near-term weakness for the second day. UK FTSE 100 was down 0.85% for the session and 1.49% down on pullback from Tuesday’s high at 7092.
German Dax slipped 0.87% for the session, with total loss from yesterday’s peak at 10683, being 1.69%.
Wall Street is set to open lower on Wednesday, as investors are looking for more details about Fed’s September policy meeting. The minutes will reveal policymakers’ views on the progress of the US economy.
US Stocks were lower on Tuesday after the first release of US corporate earnings was disappointing.
pull back from daily highs, but overall sentiment is still positive. FTSE hit marginally higher high at 7092, but so far unable to sustain gains for attack at record 7127 peak.
Wall Street opened in red, with Dow Jones down 0.11%; S&P 500 down 0.14% and Nasdaq100 down 0.14% after opening.
., Market Analysis